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Latest Redwood Wonk – We discuss the death of Roe v. Wade and the future of Choice; the sudden Republican panic over the January 6 hearings; and the non-effect of Biden’s low approval ratings on the Senate races. Also, as I do not believe that Biden ever intended to run for a second term, I reveal my prediction for the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2024. Also, I’ve had a long week and probably should have trimmed my beard. I looked like Moondog Mane.
First of all, polls in Georgia have been the most accurate even with Trump on the ballot. Secondly, Quinnipiac University polling has been trending the most conservative all year, sometimes showing Biden with lower approval than the Republican Rasmussen firm. This poll has Warnock breaking a lead over Walker by 10 points, 54 percent to 44. In January, it was Walker 49 and Warnock 48. But voters have learned a lot about Walker since then. And if the polling is correct, black voters want nothing to do with Walker.
The exact same polling sample gives Biden a 33 percent approval rating and 60 percent negative, which plays into my theory about the Biden non-effect. The big difference between January and now is independent voters as it’s otherwise a pretty partisan breakdown.
“Herschel Walker fumbles on honesty and tumbles on favorability as Raphael Warnock surges ahead in the race for senator,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
In the Governor race it’s still pretty much even between Kemp and Abrams. She’s winning with independents, but not by anywhere near the same margin, and there are Republicans and even some Democrats who seem to want to reward Kemp for standing up to Trump, even if he’s been pandering a bit lately. Interesting thing – Kemp has a higher approval rating, but also a higher disapproval rating, than Secretary of State Raffensperger, who also bucked Trump and recently testified at the January 6 hearings. The polling took place from June 23 to June 27, so probably not enough time for last week’s testimony to have an effect one way or another, if any.
LoCo is reporting. Virginia Bass and Michelle Bushnell, as well as KPD did honor the confidentiality understanding.
The negotiations are ongoing. What I know from my personal conversations with Karen is that she is willing to do this because at this point she can have no working relationship with certain county officials. They have made it absolutely toxic.
Cheryl Dillingham is reportedly not available until the end of July. I am curious as to what the arrangements will be until then.
A minority of gullible Americans elected a dangerous f—ing child to the Presidency. And many of those same people would do it again. I mean, I get that you’re in one of the largest cults since Germany circa 1936. But at a certain point you have to wake up!
Natalie Arroyo has 54 percent of the vote and will probably close with 55 percent or close to it. She pretty much clinched two reports ago.
Surprising to me is that Cervantes lost ground against Nielsen in the the Clerk/Recorder/Registrar race. I’m not sure how many votes are left to count, but it can’t be more than a few thousand, so my prediction that he will pass her and take the lead is in serious jeopardy.
KPD actually gained slightly against Dillingham.
Why do we have four Republicans Running against Huffman? Only one of them came up with two digits in percentage. I don’t recognize any of the names.
Sheriff Honsal had no opponent, but received by far the most unqualified write-in votes against him of any of the uncontested races.
Padilla did about a point better for the full term than he did for the rest of the current term.
The final report should be out this week and then next week we’ll get the precinct report hopefully. Really looking forward to it this time. I’m a geek.
Of course the media rarely gets law right, but this time it’s really screwing up.
I do think it’s a bit of a contradiction for Jeffery Clark to claim both the 5th Amendment and executive privilege in refusing to answer questions in the January 6 Hearings, and he probably should be held in contempt of Congress. But I really wish that people would stop saying, “You only take the 5th Amendment if you’re guilty of a crime.” That’s absolutely not the case. The 5th Amendment simply states that you cannot be compelled to be a witness against yourself, and if your testimony may generate an inference merely makes you look guilty and can cause you some grief – which happens much more often than you may think – you are entitled to the the right of non-response and for good reason. If a defendant on the stand in a criminal trial takes the Fifth to a question, the jury will be instructed not to infer guilt from the assertion of the right. And juries very often do take that instruction seriously, although if I was a criminal defense attorney I would try to avoid putting my client into that situation whenever possible.
But “self-incrimination” is not confession. It’s saying something which may infer guilt of a crime. Example, Joe Shmoe was murdered at 1122 B Street on April 12. You are asked if you were at 1122 B Street on April 12. You were there. You didn’t murder poor Joe, but you just don’t trust the cops to be smart enough to sort that out. Whether or not it’s a smart idea to keep the truth from the cops is a separate question – you are not compelled to answer the question. As long as you do not lie and say you weren’t there, you are fine. If they later find out that you were there, they cannot use your assertion of the 5th as consciousness of guilt. If, when they ask and you assert your rights, they say, “If you make things difficult for me, I can make things difficult for you” (this actually happened to me), they are committing a Civil Rights violation.
These commentators, in their understandable zeal to tarnish a–holes like Clark, Bannon, and company, are doing the public a disservice by misinforming them about the 5th Amendment. Please don’t be confused about your rights. I’ve had to assert them in an instance where I was in fact completely innocent. Ask me for details sometime if you’re curious.
(Of course, as my girlfriend at the time joked, “Sure you’re innocent…”)
The dark humor part of my brain wanted to make a Wiley E. Coyote quip, but the cartoon coyote never dies. I can’t imagine the terror of the Russian soldiers in the last instants as they realized that something had gone terribly wrong for them. Maybe there wasn’t even time for terror. Maybe just a “what the f—?” I mean, how does this even happen? I mean, it’s a less screwed up result from my perspective than the soldiers’ intended. But f—ing war. Enough already.
Alchevs'k, Luhansk Oblast, a Russian SAM fails during launch
Additional angle
Originally tweeted by OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) on June 24, 2022.
From a hotel, for the first time and probably the last. But there was so much to talk about and so little time. Dave and I discussed the January 6 hearings which were starting to dr
aw blood even before Thursday’s testimony about Trump’s attempt to install an inexperienced flunky as head of the DOJ. We also discussed the bats— crazy Texas GOP platform and its significance for national politics; the SCOTUS ruling further weakening the wall of separation between church and state (this was before SCOTUS weakened states rights re gun protections and then allowed states to enslave women for the duration of pregnancies); and then we closed out on the economy where economists are calling for policies which deliberately unemploy tens of millions in order to tame inflation.
So much has happened since then, but it’s really important to focus on the details of a rapidly moving moment in American political history. But as to the inevitability of the results of this November elections – based upon the polling I’m seeing – none of the conventional rules seem to apply, where for instance the Senate races seem to be completely unaffected by Biden’s low approval ratings.
Supposedly 200 kilometers inside Russia. These presumably Russian citizens don’t seem too upset about it.
A Ukrainian PD-1 drone hit the Russian Novoshakhtinsky refinery in Rostov Oblast. A very deep strike within Russian territory.
Thanks for the spot, this is likely a more custom creation
And when I talk about “deep strike” I’m both referring to the distance and doctrinal meaning
See: Sumner Benson, Deep-strike weapons and strategic stability, Orbis, Volume 40, Issue 4, 1996, Page 501
Originally tweeted by OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) on June 22, 2022.
Sohum Parlance II 
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