Almost obsolete things move so quickly!
Trafalgar earned itself a name by predicting a Trump win in 2016 based upon the “shy Trump voter.” They are estimating these shy voters at twice the amount this year – about 6 percent in some states. I guess we’ll find out.
But the Republican pollster Rasmussen tends to skew towards the Republican and then magically return to the pack in the last days of the election – theoretically in order to retain its accuracy ratings (Five-Thirty Eight hasn’t been impressed and rates them C+).
Well, right now they are separate from the pack, being the only poll to have Trump in the lead in the national vote (even though their battleground state polling hasn’t gone quite as well, though still not as bad for Trump as the other polls).
Are the other pollsters all missing the boat? Remember, the last time around they messed up with a few state results, but on the national vote they did very well – the average lead for Clinton being three points and she won it by two.
We will have a better idea in a few days if Rasmussen starts moving dramatically in the other direction.
Note, that another conservative tracking pollster who had Trump winning the popular vote in 2016 has Biden ahead by seven points – on the low end of the mean. IBD did have Trump down by as little as three points within the past couple of weeks.
So unless there really are millions of “hidden Trump supporters” out there, it does appear Biden will win. But the polls would have to be massively off – on a scale much larger than 2016. Thing is, even back then polls showed movement towards Trump – Clinton was in freefall by now due to the Comey letter. The polls have held pretty steady since the beginning of summer, and actually Biden has not fallen behind Trump all year – not even once.
It’s tearing through the midwest. The count for yesterday is the highest since the outbreak.
And in most states, hospitalizations are way up.
According to one study, if 95 percent of Americans wear masks, about 130,000 lives could be spared over the next few months.
I haven’t watched much football in years. The long term head injury issue and the NFL’s callous response to it has just completely turned me off on the game. Now that I know what’s happening to their heads every play I just can’t watch it for long.
In high school I wasn’t much into sports, but I did take interest in the 49er saga (I always love good underdog stories) as they climbed from a basement team winning only two games a season for two seasons in a row. The following year they won five or six games during the great “Rebuilding” led by the brilliant Bill Walsh as coach who put together what would become known as “the west coast offense,” based on short passes with the incredible sense and touch of Joe Montana.
And then came 1981. The season started out kind of rough. They managed to win one, but lost two of the first three games of the season. They had talent and potential, but it was looking like it was going to be another “rebuilding year.” They had a powerful offense and managed to win a couple more games, but the defense just wasn’t quite coming together. And their sixth game was going to be against the Dallas Cowboys, one of the best teams at the time (the teams would meet again in the playoffs when the 49ers would win on “the Catch”). The betting odds had the Cowboys on top with a 14 point spread.
During that week Walsh made two trades which turned around their season and led them to their first of many Superbowl wins. They acquired linebacker “Hacksaw” Jim Reynolds from the Rams. And they got defensive end Fred Dean from the Chargers.
The Cowboys didn’t know what hit them. Probably they hadn’t accounted for Dean and Reynolds in their play making and practice. But the combined force of Fred Dean, Dwayne Board, Jim Stuckey and others forced interceptions and had the Cowboys’ quarterback Dan White on the ground for much of the game, mostly due to Dean’s relentless hassling of White.
In this clip Dean makes two sacks in three plays, and nearly makes a third.
I think the game ended at something like 45 to 14, and it really wasn’t that close. The 49ers would only lose one more game on their way to their first Superbowl win. I enjoyed some of their subsequent seasons with even better teams, but nothing has topped the story of that 81-82 season.
Fred Dean died last week due to COVID 19 complications.
A Fox News reporter went through the evidence. The “chairman” in the the messages is China, not Joe Biden.
It was the second Friday before the election in which the letter was released and Clinton’s polling lead collapsed over the next 10 days.
Trump needs a new scandal.
There’s been some quiet speculation about this, and now it’s out in the open. Bernie wants the position.
Biden won’t confirm one way or another until after the election, but it’s never too early for progressives to put some pressure on.
But Biden gave his best debate performance of the year.
The dementia theme is dead.
There are a few polling outfits run by right wingers which typically skew towards conservative candidates, usually by over-Representing Republicans in their sampling. Trafalgar claims to have a magic formula for ascertaining the “shy Trump voter” who is afraid to be stigmatized so tells the pollster they’re voting for Biden. Trafalgar is guaranteeing a Trump win as of today.
But Trump’s favorite pollster is Rasmussen, which in the past has skewed towards Republicans for the the duration of the campaign, and then at the last minute turned hard towards the pack so they could be rated high for their final results. But even there, they are 78 percent accurate and have a C+ rating. But maybe they’re trying to be a real pollster this time around. They have Biden ahead significantly in the rust belt, and with results in the other battleground states comparable to the crowd.
So basically, if Trump’s favorite poll is right he still loses.
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