Some great stories! Much of the usual. Sexual harassment. Racism. Unreasonable demands of productivity. But also some exotic workplace abuses like Zoom meetings at 2 a.m., keeping time of visits to the bathroom, and running a workplace like a cult.
This is what respectful discourse sounds like! All about the recall, pandemic and the strange medical conversation at this week’s Board of Supervisor’s meeting.
Sorry, but I guess I have some more thoughts I have to get out.
After 2016 and 2020 there was endless media hand-wringing because polls were three or four points off on a few state polls involving Trump. As to the recall, after polls in early August showed that the “yes” vote was within the margin of error, the largest margin of more recent polls showing a “no” win was 19 points. Currently the “no” lead is 28 points and that lead is likely to increase before the counting is finished. There was no “the Democrats will eat my ballot” same day voting Republican cavalry.
That’s a 12 point difference from 538’s average. A 17 point difference from Trafalgar, a Republican firm which earned such fame for getting Trump’s numbers right in 2016.
This seems like a colossal failure of polling! So what happened? And why isn’t the media discussing it?
As I and many predicted, the recall went down hard. As you look at the map below and the results, even though there are still an estimated 30 percent of the votes to be counted, it appears that the paranoid same-day-vote Republican cavalry never really arrived or was offset by same-day votes of people of color who also weren’t voting early in large numbers. So it appears that not only did Newsom crush it, but he beat every single poll margin (the closest was 19 points and thus far he’s won by about 28 percent. It’s probably not going to shrink by much because the SOS says that 100 percent of precincts have reported which means all that’s left is late early voting. And if it’s consistent with 2020 it will slightly favor Democrats.
And as I predicted, nobody in the media is offering a mea culpa. Instead they’re blaming Elder. Elder is probably why the difference is in the high 20s rather than the low 20s.
The media hasn’t really caught up with the fact that when voting is accessible, people vote. And the neither national media, nor the state Republican Party, have caught up with the fact that Trump and Trumpism are non-factors in California. Falconer was crushed by Elder. But really, Elder with his 44 percent did not come in first. Nor did he truly receive 44 percent of the vote.
This from Jay Moller, a Sohum attorney, on his Facebook page:
The second-place finish for Elder is misleading. As of Wednesday morning totals (around two-thirds of ballots have been counted statewide), there were 9,137,428 total votes cast on question one (Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled?), and just 5,057,445 cast on question two.
4,079,983 voters — or a whopping 44.7% of the electorate — left question two blank (or wrote someone in). When looking at question two results after factoring in the large number of people who left it blank, the “actual” results are as follows:
1. No one (blank) 44.7%
2. Larry Elder 26.0%
3. Kevin Paffrath 5.4%
4. Kevin Faulconer 4.8%
Thank goodness we voted against the right-wing extremist.
I voted for Heather somebody. I’m sure she’s nice.
In the meantime, this was a huge miscalculation for the Republicans. It allows the Democrats to change the narrative, and not just in California even as the media narrative will be that this is really just a California thing. Had Newsom lost it would have been of national significance. That the Democrats crushed it – the media narrative will be “meh.” “It’s California.”
However, this was a trial run for Democrats on GOTV, and it may help them recapture as many as 5 or 6 House seats in California next year. That’s of national significance.
Figured I would close out with an obnoxious meme.
Update: CNN just called it.
Second Update:
“We said yes to science. We said yes to vaccines. We said yes to ending this pandemic. We said yes to people’s right to vote without fear of fake fraud or voter suppression. We said yes to women’s fundamental constitutional right to decide for herself what she does with her body and her fate and future. We said yes to diversity. We said yes to inclusion. We said yes to pluralism. We said yes to all those things that he we hold dear as Californians and I would argue as Americans. Economic justice, social justice, racial justice, environmental justice. Our values, where California’s made so much progress. All of those things were on the ballot this evening.”
What did I tell you? The recall clobbering just kicked off his eventual campaign for President. Assuming he wins reelection next year.
And it doesn’t hurt that he’s got 24 million in the bank for next year.
As if it ever had a chance. The only reason this thing even made it onto the ballot on it’s sixth try in two years is that a judge used the pandemic as an excuse to give the petitioners an extra four months to raise the required number of signatures, which was kind of ironic since they were mostly raised in communities which weren’t locking down anyway.
It’s deep in the hole in the polls.
Deep in the hole in early voting stats.
If Republicans ever want to be competitive in California again, you need to ditch the social reactionary views and embrace pro-choice and pro-LGBTQ candidates. There are wealthy people in the tech communities who might buy into the rest of your crap. You also have to break free of the Trump crazy crowd. I just don’t see that happening anytime soon because your party is run from a collection of isolated communities in the valley which are also facing gradual change.
It’s another article written by a city person who really doesn’t grok rural living or the back-to-the-land movement and makes huge assumptions about its apparent demise. But it has some nice photos and a nice interview of some local figures including Richard Evans (who now lives in Eureka).
The photo of Richard is from the article.
This was done by Jack Chick who was a bit of a religious fanatic who drew comics about all the ways people were going to Hell.
What fascinates me about this one is that is suggests that gun control is Biblical! Guns are evil. Right?
Also impressed that there’s a gang kid with a gun wearing a t-shirt about evolution. Not a very clever one, but still that’s sort of what it’s about. An intellectual gangster. Maybe a young Joey Varella?
King of the streets,
Child of pain…
Reading Nietzsche and Wilhelm Reich
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