Democrat Sherrod Brown is running for his fourth term as Senator in the beet-red state of Ohio. He first won in 2006, when the state was still considered a “swing.” In 2012 the Koch Brothers and right wing money forces went all out to defeat him – only Obama had more dark money spent against him that year. The pundits and papers were all writing him off. But he fended it all off and won reelection.
In 2018 the experts were once again writing his political eulogies. And once again, despite the fact that Trump took the state with convincing numbers in 2016, Brown won with an eight point margin. This despite the fact that no other Democrat has managed to win a statewide race since 2006. Democrats thought they had the formula in 2022 when Tim Ryan, who is more conservative than Brown, was running against MAGA wingnut celeb candidate J.D. Vance and lost.
Brown can take some left wing social positions and still win these races. Why? Because he has won over a lot of working class voters with class politics. The Democrats, and to a certain extent, the left in general has abandoned class politics in favor of more dogmatic identity politics as they (the Democrats, not necessarily the left) embrace jobs-killing trade deals dating back to the 90s.
The polls are still early, but if the Dobbs Effect is a thing in Ohio, these polls are really bad news for the Republicans, especially the Emerson College polls which have skewed right in recent years.
Clinton lost in 2016, in part, due to the fact that Trump was actually attacking her from the left in economic issues in one of the biggest ironies of 21st century politics. There were other factors, but the reluctance to part from her husbands unfortunate policies in the 90s were a decisive one in the rust belt. Biden walking the UAW picket line was a start. And this does not mean that the left and Democrats have to abandon racial, ethnic, and gender justice. They just have to remember that intersectionality is not complete if class is not at the forefront of consideration.
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March 16, 2024 at 1:17 pm
Anonymous
I think Tester will hold on too.
March 17, 2024 at 3:10 am
Just Watchin
Wow….WaPo says it outloud…..”“She was picked because she was Black and female, a combo tantamount to job security. Now that she has become a burden to the Democratic ticket”
https://www.dailywire.com/news/wapo-editorial-calls-on-kamala-harris-to-step-down-for-the-countrys-sake
March 17, 2024 at 5:25 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
I’m deleting my bookmark for 538. All the stats and info on races here with even clearer summaries on who is likely to win. (/sarcasm)
March 17, 2024 at 5:31 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
Although I agree without looking at any polling. I agree with the Dobbs effect, Sherrod Brown is beloved, even by the type of laborer who might also vote for Trump for economic reasons and having voted in a right winger, I think moderate Ohioans will be satisfied with the balance. I think Brown will win, but I’m nor “calling” anything. What does that even mean Eric? Damn are you full of yourself.
March 17, 2024 at 5:41 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
And it’s not the left that’s the problem in Ohio (tho add this to the prosecutors evidence of SoHum as a #BastionOfNeoliberalism) . We can’t budge on racial, gender equality and equity.
The problem is the center who want to erase economics as evidenced by today’s social media kerfuffle over Trump’s calling for a bloodbath if he lost when he was talking about losing jobs to Mexico & China.
Trump wins on two counts here, he’s taking the (faux) labor vote position and we are lying & overreacting about what he said.
https://x.com/tomwatson/status/1769344697632194677
March 17, 2024 at 5:42 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
https://x.com/ijbailey/status/1769338620953997392
March 17, 2024 at 5:50 am
Just Watchin
Brown’s only hope is to put as much distance between himself and magoo as politically possible. I doubt you’ll hear any Republican saying brown’s name without connecting magoo to it…..
March 17, 2024 at 6:05 am
Just Watchin
Typical pro-dobbs voter……
March 17, 2024 at 7:07 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
I’ll put down $10 on Brown winning and give you 5 to 1 odds JW.
March 17, 2024 at 7:42 am
Anonymous
We can’t budge on racial, gender equality and equity.
Why is it that those in politics can’t understand the proper view is from 10000 feet, not through a microscope? Slicing and dicing the most diverse population in human history within the confines of one nation is a fool’s errand, designed by a consultant class speaking gibberesh in a falsetto.
Let’s keep it simple Sam: lose the identifiers, focus on equity.
March 18, 2024 at 7:20 am
Just Watchin
magoo got him some new shoes……”The “Hoka Transport” shoe has a “wide sole” that is “no doubt great for stability”.
March 18, 2024 at 5:54 pm
Jon Yalcinkaya
Anon at 7:42 on the 17th…
Are you saying we shouldn’t see race? Because to get to equity, for all, we are going to have to address the fact non-whites start with systemic disadvantages based on historical and current institutionalized racism.
Tough to win elections with that hard truth? It gets easier if we keep telling the truth and explain why despite Republican lilies & fear mongering, equity for all, in the end, benefits us all. We could also make the very popular solidarity pitch too.
Steven Colbert had a great & true long running gag that as he was playing the Bill O’Reilly persona, he didn’t see race. This is a common trope on the right and it sounds to me that is ultimately what you are saying too.
https://www.cc.com/video/kai9la/the-colbert-report-stephen-realizes-he-s-black
March 18, 2024 at 5:56 pm
Jon Yalcinkaya
One more just to see if this shows up on recent comments cause otherwise this might never be seen.
March 19, 2024 at 5:30 am
Just Watchin
Looks like the democrats and msm attempt to use Trump’s “bloodbath” comment out of context has blown up in their faces…….
March 19, 2024 at 5:42 am
Just Watchin
LOL….https://twitter.com/mercedesschlapp/status/1769803597422747751
March 19, 2024 at 5:58 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
The ‘Colorblindness’ Trap How a civil rights ideal got hijacked.
From the creator of the 1619 Project Nikole Hannah-Jones.
Solidarity is understanding that not all paths to equity are the same based on identity and we need to fight the good fight for others with as much ferocity as we fight for ourselves.
March 19, 2024 at 7:06 am
Anonymous
We could also make the very popular solidarity pitch too.
In the current political hierarchy of needs, *equity* is inclusive of all people, and necessarily sits at the top of the pyramid until the last vote is counted in November. Solidarity is what it takes to get there.
. . . that is ultimately what you are saying too.
Not. Maybe you ought to re-read the post: “Slicing and dicing the most diverse population in human history . .”. An example of polling in this age:
“Our extremely accurate point-in-time poll received answers from 10 one-legged married unemployed short people of dubious ethinicity living in cities over 100000 population who rent closets.”
Just saying to the extent we focus on individual blades of grass we fail to see the trees, much less the forest. That was my one and only point. Well, that and an obvious knock on the pundit class.
March 20, 2024 at 4:49 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
Just saying to the extent we focus on individual blades of grass we fail to see the trees, much less the forest. That was my one and only point.
The problem is there exists a powerful political force in this country, one that has been with us since 1619 & before, that presumes white superiority and that is sold to the American electorate, successfully every election cycle? How do we combat that & explain it if we are focusing on individual & beautiful blades of grass while ignoring that fungus that is killing the grass the other side of the yard and has taken root right here too?
Here is just one example of how that powerful political force expresses itself in our political discourse. How do you explain this and push back against bs like faux-populist anti-DEI (Diversity Equity Inclusion) politics all over right wing media.
https://x.com/ijbailey/status/1770127541686480972
March 20, 2024 at 5:17 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
How low can we go to win and why isn’t this headline news and the outcry from Democrats loud & ubiquitous?
A Democratic super PAC aired advertisements in the closing days of the primary to elevate Mr. Moreno, clearly indicating that he was the candidate the party wanted to take on in November.
That same organization, the Senate Majority PAC, immediately castigated the candidate it had elevated, saying in a statement that Mr. Moreno “won’t be able to hide from the fact that he is a shady car salesman.” The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee attacked him immediately as well, recycling videos of attacks from Mr. Dolan and Mr. LaRose that tarred the newly minted nominee as an untrustworthy, corrupt extremist.
March 20, 2024 at 5:20 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
A: This is how centrists get elected, money, and money’s game isn’t principles, it’s winning so that money can get its due. Adam Schiff used this strategy too.
The tactic has carried over to this cycle. Earlier this month, Representative Adam Schiff, a Democrat running for Senate in California, spent $10 million to elevate Steve Garvey, a Republican former baseball star. Garvey came in second in the state’s “jungle” primary, where the two top finishers advance to the general election regardless of their party affiliation. Schiff is widely considered to be on a glide path to the Senate.
March 22, 2024 at 10:21 pm
Anonymous
If it helps Brown win then what is the problem?
March 23, 2024 at 4:17 am
Just Watchin
I seem to recall that democrats were happy when JD Vance beat Dolan in that primary. Be careful what you wish for…..
March 23, 2024 at 6:16 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
If it helps Brown win then what is the problem?
a) What if the polls are wrong and Democratic dollars helped a Trumpist win?
b) Authenticity is critical. People don’t trust politicians and gamesmanship like this erodes trust.
c) It’s unethical. This is not a Democratic decision, it’s the Republican nominee. Let them make their choice and let’s battle it out in November.
d) How do we make an argument FOR campaign finance reform if we are the ones leveraging money?
i) We sound like hypocrites when the time comes to make the pitch
ii) it gives power and prestige in our party to those who DONT want to reform money out of politics, ie the centrists, ie the Adam Sciffs of the world instead of the Katie Porters or Barbara Lee’s who run on platforms based on voting FOR them & their platform, not against the other guy and their platform.
March 23, 2024 at 7:06 am
Anonymous
If the Republicans don’t want to nominate crazy fucks like Vance and Moreno they shouldn’t vote for them. It’s funny to see Republicans blaming Democrats for their own bad decisions.
March 23, 2024 at 7:40 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
Why do politicians, consultants and those employed in our campaign industry raise money for campaigns?
The same reason companies spend a great deal of money advertising to us, the money influences the people buying the products or making the votes.
Sure, I guess an advertiser has a right to lie if regulators can’t regulate if the lie is considered free speech or if no body cares about snake oil salesmen swindling Jane public, but does that make it ethical?
When we chose our representatives we are asking them to create a better world for tomorrow, what if the very people we nominate are the ones lying & cheating simply because we have been able to regulate the process yet?
Democrats lied about the candidates they were advertising about, or they told the truth that they disposed themselves but they knew the rubes would fall for. Do you want to be associated with such people? Is that the only way to win?
March 23, 2024 at 7:57 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
March 23, 2024 at 8:00 am
Anonymous
I still don’t get it. Voters aren’t responsible for their own votes?
March 23, 2024 at 8:10 am
Jon Yalcinkaya
I’d argue not alone anon. We live in a matrix and are part of greater collectives, often but not always, of our choosing. I find the question of if a person is responsible for a vote analogous to what President Obama said, which was true but which drove the right crazy…
You didn’t build that” is a phrase from a 2012 election campaign speech delivered by United States President Barack Obama on July 13, 2012, in Roanoke, Virginia. In the speech, Obama said: “Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that.”
“Somebody has invested time and energy in informing you how to vote, if you voted, their efforts were part of that vote.”
Why else would we spend money on ads? Would Rusty Hicks have gotten so many votes without the ads or fliers? Would Prop 1?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_didn't_build_that