Despite the stunt by House members storming the secured hearing the other day – which only underscored the Republican fear of the situation – most of the Republicans are not yet really going to bat for him. They’re spooked!
Here are the nine GOP senators who have not signed on to Sen. Lindsey Graham’s tepid resolution condemning the impeachment process in the House:
Lamar Alexander (TN)*
Susan Collins (ME)
Mike Enzi (WY)
Cory Gardner (CO)
Johnny Isakson (GA)*
Lisa Murkowski (AK)
Rob Portman (OH)
Mitt Romney (UT)
Dan Sullivan (AK)*not seeking re-election
Sohum Parlance II 
12 comments
Comments feed for this article
October 25, 2019 at 11:13 am
Bob Wallace
I’ve now got my probability of impeachment at > 98% and my probability of conviction at >50%.
As several commenters have pointed out no Republican senators are providing any defense of Trump. No information supporting Trump is leaking out of the hearings.
All that is happening is that the process is being attacked. That gives Republicans a way to make noise that sounds to the double digit IQ crew takes as defense of Trump. Republicans seem to be stuck with only theater.
When/if things get serious and a trial starts in the Senate I suspect we’ll see a careful counting by the Senate leadership to see which Republicans can vote to convict with the least political blowback.
But I sort of don’t think we’ll get that far. In the past Donnie doesn’t seem to have fought failure very hard but declared bankruptcy and gone on to his next scam. Especially if he can cut a deal that keeps him out of prison I suspect he’ll Nixon out.
October 25, 2019 at 2:58 pm
Anonymous
I would put the probability of impeachment in the House at 99% but the possibility of impeachment at closer to 1%. It would take all Democratic senators, plus 20 Republicans. Reaching that number of Republicans seems very unlikely to me. If the mountain of clear-cut evidence we already have isn’t enough, it isn’t clear to me what more evidence would suffice.
October 25, 2019 at 3:15 pm
Anonymous
As far as resignation, if it came down to a real possibility of removal, I agree he’d probably try to cut his losses and resign and take the inevitable pardon from Pence. But, again, I think it’s pretty unlikely we get to that point.
October 25, 2019 at 5:33 pm
Bob Wallace
“probability of impeachment in the House at 99% but the possibility of impeachment at closer to 1%. ”
I assume you meant the probability of conviction closer to 1%. I’m not that pessimistic. I think many Republican senators know that Trump is doing real damage to their party, long term damage. If Trump is on the ticket in 2020 there’s likely to be a massive turnout of voters opposed to Trump and it will cost Republicans a lot of federal, state, and local elections. Plus any senators who vote in support of Trump are going to get tagged with that and will be facing angry voters during their next election two and four years later. Their opponents will remember to remind voters.
What would be smartest for Republicans would be to speed the process along and get Trump out before the end of this year. Start their recovery with the new year and hope they can get a little of the stink off them by November. Democrats, on the other hand, might want things to drag out until closer to the primaries.
It’s going to be interesting to watch.
As for leaving with a pardon in his pocket, that only partially helps Donnie. New York State and possibly other state governments are likely to go after him for bank fraud, tax evasion, and money laundering and a new president can’t pardon state crimes.
If Trump had any ability to comprehend and think then his best move would probably be to attempt to negotiate with various governments to plead guilty to a bunch of stuff, accept some large fines that would strip him of much of whatever real estate he might actually have, and slink away.
October 25, 2019 at 6:52 pm
Rusty
Ahhhhh, PA the ever present voice of reason and sanity. No TDS present in you scan today!
I said you’re the intelligent one here and this proves you are not the RCB nitwit who would never ever say something so, so, Precocious!!
The longer the Dems keep up this back room circus of lies and deceit with a sideshow of rigged proceeding, Who could in good Conscience and Common Sense vote to convict ? Bring on the trial let due process sink the Dems ship once and for all.
October 25, 2019 at 10:21 pm
Eric Kirk
The hearings are in closed door sessions to protect the whistle blowers. The Republicans in the committees know this. They know what’s coming, and they’re afraid.
October 25, 2019 at 11:40 pm
Bob Wallace
Early stages of investigations are typically done ‘behind closed doors’. You don’t want people who are going to be interviewed listening to what others are saying and then agreeing with them as opposed to telling what they actually know. And you want to sort out the useful, reliable witnesses from the unreliable and eliminate those who know nothing useful.
With Nixon and Clinton there were extensive investigations carried on behind closed doors by special prosecutors. This time the House is doing the investigation. And, don’t forget, there are 47 or 48 Republican representatives who sit on the committees that are behind closed doors. And they get as much time to ask questions as do Democrats.
In another week or two the hearings will be laid out in full display for everyone to hear. And it looks like the public testimony is going to be very damaging for Trump.
October 26, 2019 at 10:44 am
Henchman Of Justice
If they all signed on, and if every decision required 100% agreement…dictatorship does not need all signed on when it is the same effect…as if Romney signs on for his darling and beloved Trump…
So, no word yet on the whistleblower, eh…they storm the room blinded and can’t see anyone they did not already know from congress…so the whistleblower is a congressperson… or never present….
Breaking News: the room was empty…no whistleblower present, apparently… can’t imagine what war room tactical discussions were taking place, lol…the shitshow called the 2 Party System…
☆ If ya don’t wanna be an enabler of America’s destruction, then AVOID VOTING 2 Party System candidates ..sign a petition to change elections to independent, non organizational only status for all candidates…government funds elections…no private monies allowed, all candidates receive equal PUBLIC monies regardless….invest in USA, like education, politics is political science…too many dumbed-down voters that are mental and physical slaves to the Democrats and Republicans…
☆☆ Sign a petition to, once and for all, cease moving voter districting lines….preferably use the historic natural environmental boundaries to delineate districting boundaries…let people fall where they may…
…the frayed ends of sanity…
October 26, 2019 at 10:56 am
Henchman Of Justice
So 2 clues,
It is the democrats having the hearing after constantly bitching that the president and congress are two separate branches of government that must act independently…
… why would the defense spill it’s beans before any trial, just curious Miss Erica…you may slow down on Bobbie with that lewd and lascivious lap dance now, so why would defense spill it’s beans… is disproving fake evidence a defense…we will find out on that too…
“As several commenters have pointed out no Republican senators are providing any defense of Trump. No information supporting Trump is leaking out of the hearings.” ~ Bobbie Wallower
October 28, 2019 at 6:24 am
Anonymous
“I assume you meant the probability of conviction closer to 1%. I’m not that pessimistic. I think many Republican senators know that Trump is doing real damage to their party, long term damage. If Trump is on the ticket in 2020 there’s likely to be a massive turnout of voters opposed to Trump and it will cost Republicans a lot of federal, state, and local elections. Plus any senators who vote in support of Trump are going to get tagged with that and will be facing angry voters during their next election two and four years later. Their opponents will remember to remind voters.”
I think the crucial dynamic you’re leaving out here is that if Trump is removed from office and is not on the ticket in 2020, a huge number of Trump supporters will not only sit out the presidential elections, but will also boycott GOP senators who voted to oust him. Those are the angry voters GOPers are much more worried about. I mean, just imagine the absolute fury from die-hard Trump supporters among the GOP rank-and-file if GOP senators turn against him. And make no mistake about it, a large proportion of GOP base voters are die-hard Trump supporters at this point.
So the only way I see 20 GOP enators voting to convict and oust Trump is if either (1) his current base of die-hard supporters among the GOP rank and rile start to turn against him, or (2) these senators vote based on the evidence and without concern for their own political futures. I would estimate the chances of either of those things happening as extremely low, which is why I believe it is extremely unlikely the Senate will vote to convict and remove, despite the growing mountain of evidence of Trump’s blatant abuses of power.
October 28, 2019 at 6:55 am
Anonymous
I should note that I think it will probably be better, in the long run, if Trump is defeated in the 2020 election, as opposed to removed by the Senate.
The former could help turn the page from this ugly chapter of our history, based on a clear-cut mandate of the people. The lesson for GOP voters and lawmakers would be that the kind of extremism, bigotry and pathological lying that Trump has represented and practiced, his not supported by the majority (or even a large enough minority to win the electoral college).
By contrast, being removed by the Senate would make him a martyr to the GOP base, and the subject of a lasting “stabbed in the back” narrative, where Trump supporters will continue to believe they’re the “real” majority and that Trump would have won re-election in a landslide if only he hadn’t been “stabbed in the back” by GOP senators who voted to oust him. It seems to me that would be a recipe for an even more toxic political environment going forward.
So I’m happy that the impeachment investigation is going forward so that all the facts can come out (or at least as many of the facts as can be uncovered), and I’m pretty sure the House will vote to impeach, given those facts. And yes, by all rights the Senate probably should convict, assuming the articles of impeachment shape up the way I’m assuming they will, but the fact that there likely won’t be 20 GOP senators willing to convict (no matter what the evidence shows) may, ironically, turn out better for the country in the long term.
October 28, 2019 at 11:03 am
Bob Wallace
Conviction by the Senate is so hard to predict. Republican senators probably fall into two camps, “team members” and “serious senators”. Some Republicans are going to spend time thinking about their oath of office and their obligation to the Constitution. Will there be 20 or more of these serious senators on the Republican side and will they decide to put country ahead of party if the evidence is clear that Trump erred and should be removed?
Those serious senators are going to be struggling with a variety of issues. Upholding the Constitution should be foremost but there will be reasons pushing back. If they vote to convict Trump there’s a very high chance they might get primaried out. It may be more than just hanging on to their job, they may feel they have a mission to complete in the Senate and the country would best be served by their staying in office.
For several failing to vote to convict might allow them to win their primary but it might assure they wouldn’t win the general if they are in a not-deep-red state.
Perhaps some are thinking that they are screwed if they do and screwed if they don’t. They may come to feel that Trump is the reason that they are in grave danger of losing their office.
There might be 20 Republican senators who would vote to impeach because they aren’t likely to hang onto their job anyway so they might as well go on record as defenders of the Constitution.
—-
I know there aren’t 20 Republican senators up for election this year. But if Trump were not convicted and managed to stay in office those senators would get slammed when their election rolls around in 2022 or 2024.