The Blue Dogs took a pounding tonight

Blue Dog Leadership Team

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD) , Blue Dog Co-Chair for Administration

Rep. Baron Hill (IN-09) , Blue Dog Co-Chair for Policy

Rep. Jim Matheson (UT-02), Blue Dog Co-Chair for Communications

Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11), Blue Dog Whip

Blue Dog Members

Altmire, Jason (PA-04)
Arcuri, Mike (NY-24)
Baca, Joe (CA-43)
Barrow, John (GA-12)
Berry, Marion (AR-01)
Bishop, Sanford (GA-02)
Boren, Dan (OK-02)
Boswell, Leonard (IA-03)
Boyd, Allen (FL-02)
Bright, Bobby (AL-02)
Cardoza, Dennis (CA-18)
Carney, Christopher (PA-10)
Chandler, Ben (KY-06)
Childers, Travis (MS-01)
Cooper, Jim (TN-05)
Costa, Jim (CA-20)
Cuellar, Henry (TX-28)
Dahlkemper, Kathy (PA-03)
Davis, Lincoln (TN-04)
Donnelly, Joe (IN-02)
Ellsworth, Brad (IN-08)
Giffords, Gabrielle (AZ-08)
Gordon, Bart (TN-06)
Harman, Jane (CA-36)
Herseth Sandlin, Stephanie (SD)
Hill, Baron (IN-09)
Holden, Tim (PA-17)
Kratovil, Jr., Frank (MD-01)
McIntyre, Mike (NC-07)
Markey, Betsy (CO-04)
Marshall, Jim (GA-08)
Matheson, Jim (UT-02)
Melancon, Charlie (LA-03)
Michaud, Mike (ME-02)
Minnick, Walt (ID-01)
Mitchell, Harry (AZ-05)
Moore, Dennis (KS-03)
Murphy, Patrick (PA-08)
Murphy, Scott (NY-20)
Nye, Glenn (VA-02)
Peterson, Collin (MN-07)
Pomeroy, Earl (ND)
Ross, Mike (AR-04)
Salazar, John (CO-03)
Sanchez, Loretta (CA-47)
Schiff, Adam (CA-29)
Schrader, Kurt (OR-05)
Scott, David (GA-13)
Shuler, Heath (NC-11)
Space, Zack (OH-18)
Tanner, John (TN-08)
Taylor, Gene (MS-04)
Thompson, Mike (CA-01)
Wilson, Charles (OH-06)

Hospital Board results

I don’t know if this accounts for Garberville and Redway, and it certainly doesn’t include the mail ballots submitted late, but these are the current results:

Barbara Truitt – 593
Marie Krissie Branzei – 381
Gary Wellborn – 376
Judith Gonzalez – 276
Keith Brooks – 193
Corinne Stromstad – 337
Michael Hoffman – 266

Resultsamania

Okay, that was fun on KMUD and Access Humboldt.  The big news is that in the Garberville and Redway precincts, Prop 19 went down big – like 3 to 1 against.

It looks like a conservative sweep for a big box in Eureka.

Gallegos is also way down, although the Sohum votes were very heavily in his favor and those votes are en route.

And the State returns site is still down.  They’re blaming the rush of interest due to Prop 19.  There’s no excuses for it being down all night however.  Garrison Keiller rocks!

And Kos’ latest:

SENATE: GOP +6 in the Senate (picked up IL, IN, AR, PA, WI, ND)

GOVERNOR: R+1 (GOP: OH, NM, PA; DEM: CA; IND: 1)

HOUSE: R+57 (R+59, D+2)

D pickups: DE-AL, LA-02
R pickups: AL-02, AR-01, AR-02, CO-04, IN-08, IN-09, FL-02, FL-08, FL-22, FL-24, GA-02, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17, IN-08, IN-09, KS-03, LA-03, MD-01, MO-04, MS-01, MI-01, MS-04, MO-04, NH-01, NH-02, NJ-03, NM-02, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-29, NC-02, ND-AL, OH-06, OH-12, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-11, SC-05, SD-AL, TN-04, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, VA-02, VA-05, VA-09, WA-03, WV-01, WI-07, WI-08.

29-30 Blue Dog seats will have been eliminated by the time tonight is over. But it was progressive populism that is dead!

Update 1: Bennet back up in CO-Sen. Looks like numbers in Boulder County may have been misreported. Still, margin is just 2,500 votes with 72% in.

Update 2: And Buck is back up, by 4K. This race is giving me whiplash.

Update 3: Dems hold NY-23 thanks to Doug Hoffman’s dead third-party candidacy.

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Jon Stewart on the lesson of the night, “it’s better to support prostitutes than Social Security.”

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Okay, the second Humboldt County report is in, and the conservatives are still ahead, but the results are interesting.   Gallegos remains behind, but while he is well behind in mailed-in votes, he is ahead in today’s vote.  Peter LeVallee is likewise behind Jager overall, but ahead in today’s vote.  Kuhnel as well.  Glass appears to be in serious trouble as he is behind in both.  That’s with about 40 percent of the precincts accounted for.  I don’t know how many of Eureka’s have been counted, nor which parts of the city.

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First line of Harry Reid’s victory speech:  “Today Nevada chose hope over fear.”  Significant and symbolic on several levels.

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So how did the polls mess up Nevada so badly?

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Boxer just pulled into a seven point lead, and Los Angeles and Alameda County haven’t been counted.  Maybe that bodes well for some of the propositions, including 19?

Meanwhile, the Democrats held their ground in Minnesota, winning the governor’s race and successfully defending all their endangered Democrat House districts.

Boxer’s victory speech line – “The Giants beat the Texas Rangers and California voters beat the Texas polluters!”

And this from the NY Times on the lesson for Obama:

The question is: Will either side draw the right lessons from this midterm election?

Mr. Obama, and his party, have to do a far better job of explaining their vision and their policies. Mr. Obama needs to break his habits of neglecting his base voters and of sitting on the sidelines and allowing others to shape the debate. He needs to do a much better job of stiffening the spines of his own party’s leaders.

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Josh Marshal on Jerry Brown’s victory speech.

Jerry Brown was sort of my formative political experience or perhaps my first. He was in office when I was in elementary school in California. He just gave his acceptance speech. I didn’t see it but I heard it. It was classic Jerry Brown. Seemed like something I could have heard him say 30+ years ago. Not the kind of speech you’d ever expect to hear from almost any politician in the country. He was a bit punchy, extemporaneous. Ranging in various ways from one topic to another. Here’s the one quote I wrote down: I still have that “missionary zeal to transform the world.” Who else would say that? I don’t think I heard any of his speeches during the campaign. But I get the sense he let a bit of Gov. Moonbeam out post-victory. In his post-gubernatorial career he’s frequently driven me nuts. But I kind of love the guy.

–Josh Marshall

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Although the media has not yet called Washington State, there isn’t a whole lot of hand-wringing among Democrats right now.  Why not?  Because the bulk of the remaining votes to be counted are in King County, aka, Seattle.

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The state returns site is still down.  I hereby revoke my previous compliments for Debra Bowen.  There is simply no excuse for this.  Much is riding on this election, and people should really be able to track results directly from the source.

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It also looks good in Colorado.  Although Buck holds a small lead, apparently the bulk of the remaining votes are in Denver and Boulder.  If Bennett and Murray lead, the Democrats would retain a Lieberman-proof 53 member majority.

I’ll be on KMUD a little later

I’ll be back here late.

Kos has the current score:

SENATE: GOP +3 in the Senate (picked up IN, AR, WI)

GOVERNOR: +1 (GOP: PA)

HOUSE: R+21 (R+23, D+2)

D pickups: DE-AL, LA-02
R pickups: IN-08, IN-09, FL-02, FL-08, FL-24, IL-17, MD-01, MI-01, NH-01, NJ-03, OH-18, PA-10, PA-11, TN-04, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, VA-05, VA-09, VA-11

Dems lose PA-11, the odious Blue Dog Chris Carney is gone. Kanjorski (D) loses in PA-10. Dems lose MS-01.

Update: Feingold loses in Wisconsin. That’s an R pickup.

Adler (D) loses in NJ-03. He was one of the asshats who blocked the middle class tax cut.

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Quick note – In listening to the victory speeches of the more conservative Republicans tonight, none of them is talking about rebuilding the economy – not a single one.  All of them talk about fighting Democrats.  That’s what they were elected to do.

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The race is being called for Jerry Brown who won easily.

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And now Boxer too.

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Debra Bowen will probably win too, but tonight she’s failing badly.  The results site is down.

Humboldt County has a first report link up, but it’s broken.

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Harry Reid is ahead.

Results Thread

I’ll be on and offline all evening, and may not be able to keep up with this.  Please post what you learn as it comes in.

First blood to the Republicans. Kentucky is being called for Rand Paul as the first Tea Party backed candidate claims victory.

Leahy and DeMint win big to nobody’s surprise.

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Indiana falls to the Republicans to nobody’s surprise.  Thank you Evan Bayh!

It’s not too late to help McAdams in Alaska with telephone GOTV.  5 hours left!  That could be a huge surprise win for Democrats and it could be close!

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Maybe a little bit of good news.  Democrats appear to be holding onto a couple of House seats which were in question, one in Kentucky and one in Indiana.

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Democrats hold onto the WV Senate seat, although the guy is more conservative than some Republicans.

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It’s looking very bad in Virginia.

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NPR is projecting that the Republicans will win the House.

Rand Paul is calling the night “a Tea Party Tidal Wave.”

Alan Grayson is out.

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CNN is reporting that the independents went heavy towards Republicans this time.  Apparently they were shocked when Obama pushed for health care reform.

But there are some developing bright spots for Democrats.  Sestak, who was behind in all the polls, is out in front in Pennsylvania, though most of Philadelphia’s precincts have been counted.  And Bennett is ahead in Colorado.

On Television Christine O’Donnell is giving her concession speech.  Democrats have secured 47 Senate seats, including Connecticut’s.  Although the media tried to make it a race, McMahan was never close.

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Nate Silver on Pennsylvania:

Sestak is holding his own in the western portion of the state, the Philadelphia suburbs, performing well in the industrial areas in the eastern portion of the state, and has accumulated a 100,000-vote advantage so far in Philadelphia. This race ought to worry Republicans.

But Feingold is going down so far in Wisconsin.

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Kos has the score as follows:

SENATE: GOP +2 in the Senate (picked up IN, AR)

GOVERNOR: Even

HOUSE: R+12 (R+13, D+1)

D pickups: DE-AL
R pickups: IN-08, IN-09, FL-02, FL-08, FL-24, NH-01, TN-04, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, VA-05, VA-09, VA-11

Blue Dogs: -6

As bad as House Dems look in PA, they’re looking pretty good in North Carolina.

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Vitter wins in Louisiana, proving that sexual indiscretions of a pol are a deal breaker for the right – if you’re a Democrat.

Meanwhile, Joe “you lie” Wilson may be one of the few Republican incumbents in trouble.

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Democrats maintain leads in Colorado, Illinois, and Pennsylvania.  They are almost certain to retain control of the Senate, and may even have some votes to spare.

Glimmer of hope for Democrats?

Huffington Post is reporting high turnouts in Urban areas.

God!  Can you imagine the uproar if the Republicans actually fail to take either the House or Senate?!

Maybe it’s accounted for by Tea Party inspired people who haven’t voted before.  Or just maybe some of the likely voter models are outdated.  Maybe the cell phone cavalry anticipated over the past few elections has finally arrived. And maybe the registered voter based polls have more relevance than usual.

It’s a nice sunny day.  I can’t help but be optimistic.  It may come crashing down tonight, but then my expectations have been pretty low for awhile now.

Addendum: One more obscure reason to be optimistic.