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It was back to school night last evening, so I missed much of the debate. I did get to see the highlights later. Someone asked me whom I think “won.” Just my impression, but since Biden is the front-runner in most polls, I would say that any debate performance in which he does not show signs of dementia is to his favor. But I think the first primaries and caucuses are going to be influenced by the ground games each candidate has, and there’s no way to measure that right now. If Biden isn’t bleeding going into Super Tuesday he will be the candidate. Otherwise, flip a coin between Bernie and Warren. I think Harris already peaked – she really should have waited for the primaries before she started switching her positions. You have to price to a premium before you sell out. I don’t see anybody else making any big moves in the polls. Yang’s stunt was cute, but I really don’t think it’s going to give him traction over what he already has. Booker and Castro did well (Castro might have pissed some people off), but they did well in the past two debates and although more people now know them and like them, it hasn’t moved them up in polls much. Beto seems to be auditioning for a VP gig. Klobuchar was as boring and bland as ever. And any candidate who didn’t make it into the debate last night is probably toast, with the dubious exceptions of Steyer and Tulsi. I expect most of the rest will drop out before the 4th debate.

So it comes down to the three and I’m already thinking VP. If Warren gets the nomination – and there is a very good chance of that – I think her best choice would be Sherrod Brown – bona fide progressive particularly with class and labor issues who has fended off more dark money in his Senate runs than any non-Presidential candidate for anything. If the Republicans don’t win Ohio, they lose – plain and simple.

If Biden wins he will probably court Stacy Abrams again. I think he will have to go female. Castro burned that bridge last night anyway.

For Bernie, I would say Abrams, Castro, or possibly someone completely out of the box.



September 2019