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Here’s an account of the cable news coverage for each candidate.  I don’t even know who Marianne Williamson is!

Here’s an article about the relative popularity of each candidate – apparently Democrats like the candidates they know (except de Blasio).

So all but a few candidates qualify for the first debate.  Obviously anybody who doesn’t make it into that debate is done.  Obviously Sanders, Biden, Harris, Warren, Beto, Buttigieg, and Booker will survive the first debate and the summer.  Probably also Gilibrand and Klobuchar.

I figure it will be down to about 12 by late fall, although some may hang on because they have the money and nothing else to do – Hickenlooper for instance.  And maybe Yang.

Tulsi Gabbard and de Blasio have too many negative points to survive very long.

Hickenlooper, Yang, and Delaney are technocrats, with Delaney perhaps claiming a niche as a token conservative (though Hickenlooper may have earned that designation at the SF convention this last weekend by getting himself booed for defending private health insurance companies and opposing Medicare for All).

Julian Castro may impress at the debates and increase his support long enough to survive the first cleansing.

I don’t know much about Seth Moulton, but he seems to be the kind of “something for everybody” kind of candidate and like some other candidates running in the hopes of getting some national name recognition for future endeavors.

The others I haven’t really read about.  But maybe some of you are impressed with one or two of them?  Setting aside your politics, here are two questions.

  1.  Aside from the “Big 7” which of the candidates do you think will still be in the race by the end of summer?  By the end of the year?
  2. Setting aside their chances of winning in the primaries – assume a miracle – which of the candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Trump in the general and why?
  3. Which of the candidates do you think will drop out shortly after the first debate?


June 2019
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