Sure. The Fivethirtyeight people discuss it. Things can happen, such as… a major successful terror attack.
I think when you’re incorporating that into an election scenario, you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel.
He’s been consistently down by 6 or 7 points since the end of the DNC. Has anyone come back from such an August deficit to win? Yes, Bush, Sr. in 1988, but the deficit was before his convention, not after both conventions had finished.
Trump’s rebooting himself. Again. But he always reverts. Everybody keeps talking about all the “mistakes” he’s made since the conventions, but these aren’t mistakes. It’s the same thing he’s been doing. Bringing Ailes in is a good indication of what one of the discussion participants said – the Trump campaign is in a bubble which assumes that the angry 35 percent who support him unconditionally represent the majority. It’s a big constituency to build on, but so far in a year of campaigning he hasn’t managed to build on it.
Sure, a terror attack could happen. Or a cataclysmic economic downturn, might help him. Or a Wikileaks distribution which reveals Clinton as a closeted axe-murderer – maybe. Or he may release a mind-controlling gas from his private jet which causes all his critics to “bow down” before him as his protégé Omarosa Manigault suggests.
But they’re even in Georgia and Arizona, and Clinton is ahead by more than 10 points in polls for states which together add up to well over the requisite 270 electoral college votes.
So yeah, “anything can happen.” But it probably won’t.
He made a play for the black vote in Milwaukee yesterday. Maybe he can have Sizzla tour with him.