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Okay, the Humboldt County Third Report is in.  The biggest news is that Virginia Bass has slipped below the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff.  But she’s looking very strong for November, as I suspect that the bulk of Leonard’s votes will go to her.

Gallegos and Jackson are neck-in-neck just below 40 percent each.  As the numbers I’m about to post will show, Gallegos will be getting a boost from Sohum.  The ballots are on their way up, but I have the results left on the tape at the Garberville precincts.  Unfortunately, the Redway election workers neglected to leave the tape at that location, so I won’t have those results.


Probably my biggest misread ever – my candidate Jon Brooks went down hard today.  Mari Wilson is in first place.  This is a strange feeling for me, because I think I’m probably going to be endorsing Johanna Rodoni in the runoff.


Okay, in Garberville precinct 2SHS4 Measure L won 75 to 33.  In precinct 2SH-4 it won over 87 votes to 40 nays.  These are not factored into even the latest results.  The schools get a little bit of money.  Be happy.


Also not factored into the latest results (the truck has been on its way for over an hour, so the update should be soon) are the following numbers for the D.A. race in the Garberville precincts.

2SHS4:  Bryson 5, Jackson 9, Gallegos 89, Hagen 10, write-in 1

2sh-4:  Bryson 3, Jackson 14, Gallegos 104, Hagen 7

Downey also won in lopsided manner, 5 to 1 in both precincts.

Brooks did very well, coming in first in both precincts.  But it won’t be enough.

2SHS4:  Brooks 49, Wilson 31, Rodoni 29

2SH-4: Brooks 53, Wilson 41, Rodoni 32, write-in 1


Look at that map for the Fair Elections Act! The big loss is in Los Angeles.  I suspect once Humboldt County reports beyond the mail-ins, it will turn yellow on the map.


Only two counties against prop 14, SF and Mono.  I suspect Mono will turn yellow as more votes are counted.


The tide just turned.  Prop 16 is now slightly behind the no votes.  The spread will probably increase.


SF – population of over 700 thousand, yet fewer than 100 thousand voted.  Pathetic.


In the county to our south, it looks like Johnny Pinches is back in easy.

JOHN PINCHES 944 50.08%
TONY ORTH 246 13.05%
Write-in Votes 4 0.21%

Former Congressman Dan Hamburg is running for Supervisor and is neck-in-neck with Wendy Roberts.

WENDY A. ROBERTS 663 32.28%
NORMAN L. de VALL 281 13.68%
JIM MASTIN 432 21.03%
DAN HAMBURG 669 32.57%
Write-in Votes 9 0.44%

And the D.A. race is really close.

MATT FINNEGAN 2664 30.11%
C. DAVID EYSTER 2872 32.46%
Write-in Votes 29 0.33%

Humboldt elections site crashed.  I’m going to bed soon.


5th Report in. No major changes.  Sohum precincts still not accounted for.


6th Report in. Sohum accounted for.  Gallegos pulled ahead.


Final Report. I think Pat Cleary is actually in a very good position to take the 5th District in November.

Assuming that there aren’t stray votes out there to push Bass to the top, we can expect a brutal campaign from here to November.  Bonnie and the controlled growth folks are going to have to pull out the stops and visit every home in Eureka twice to convince voters that the Marina Center Development as proposed is bad news from Eureka.

Brooks did end up much better than early on, but it’s between the women now.  Thing is, the Assessor’s office really needs a shake-up.  As I said above, right now I’m leaning Rodoni.

And it looks like we dodged two bullets in 16 and 17.  But public financing went down, and the centrist mush-pol affirmative action measure passed enormously.

I’ll be dropping stuff into this post from here on through the night.

Let’s start with Hank Sims’ predictions.


TPM has up a scoreboard for key races across the country.


Lots of predictions over at Humboldt Herald.


Not election news per se, but if you’re in Fortuna you might want to stop in at the vigil protesting the oil spill at 6:00 at Rohner Park.

The first results – in Virginia a GOP moderate, Robert Hurt, fended off some pretty intense Tea Party attacks to win a Congressional race nomination handily.  Good news for GOP moderates, bad news for the Democrat Tom Perriello.  This will be tough race.


More local analysis and predictions from Reporta, including a projection that Allison Jackson will get the most votes.  Reporta also distributes awards to the candidates for various categories.


Looks like alleged manizer Nikki Haley will win big, but be forced into a runoff for the South Carolina Governor Republican nomination – just barely.


It’s not looking good in Arkansas for the progressive bid to take out Blanche (bane of the public option) Lincoln.


Okay, it’s looking a little better.


Fred also has an election thread going.


Halter just pulled ahead of Lincoln!  Doesn’t necessarily mean anything in the long haul, but it’s his best news all night.  Even Nate Silver’s cheerful about it.


News on some other races around the country.


Damn!  Look like Lincoln pulled it out.


The Chronicle reports that today’s election turnout in California may have set a record low.  California’s polls just closed.  No immediate exit poll reports  on the wires.  I’m heading home, and I’ll check back in a little later.


First returns for Measure L – mail in ballots only – yes 642, no 421


First returns for the other races, courtesy of NCJ Blogthing (with 11,477 absentee votes counted):


John Brooks: 21.16%

Mari Wilson: 40.5%

Rodoni: 38.26%


Bryson: 5.98%

Jackson: 38.76%

Gallegos: 35.98%

Hagen: 19.21%


Downey 67.27%

Hislop: 32.47%


Bass: 54.32%

Neely: 28.08%

Leonard: 17.23%


Sundberg: 42.82%

Lytle: 4.40%

Cleary: 29.42%

Higgins: 23.28%


Statewide, it looks like 13, 14, and 17 are passing.  15 is going down.  16 still too close to call.  Very bad night for progressives.


Back in national elections, with the chicken lady going down, it looks like Harry Reid will survive November.


Very slow returns tonight locally.


Carly Fiorina buried Tom Campbell.  Good news for Democrats, unless she manages to beat Boxer in November!

Not likely.


Gavin Newsom in easy.


Looking at the map and which areas have not been counted, I’m pretty sure Prop. 16, the PG&E Monopoly Initiative will eventually go down.  California results tend to start bad, then improve through the night as urban returns come in.


And cancel my earlier pessimism re Prop 17, the Mercury Insurance Windfall Initiative.  There’s a good chance it will go down as well as returns from SF, Los Angeles, etc. come in.  6 points isn’t that big a spread.


It will get much closer for Prop 15, but that spread is pretty big even considering the urban counties not accounted for yet.  Slim hope.


Starting a new thread.  This one’s too cumbersome.

There were no other voters when Jana and I arrived at the precinct this morning at 8:00.  A few trickled in before we left.  I hope there was a larger absentee turnout.

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