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Just heard it on the radio. Damn.

The Republican response? File a lawsuit against Obama for using campaign funds to fly to Hawaii to visit her.

And don’t accept a provisional ballot if you can help it.

I’ve received one email from a voter who had sent in her absentee ballot a couple of weeks ago and called last week to find that it hadn’t been entered as received. I received a follow-up this morning that her vote was accounted for and entered, but if you sent in an absentee ballot you might want to call the elections department (445-7678) to verify its arrival and counting.

As for the ACORN controversy, there’s no there there. Thanks to Mr. Greenjeans for the link.

Meanwhile, 30 million votes have already been cast. In places like Georgia, some people have waited in long lines for hours to vote. Hopefully it gave elections departments warnings to make certain that machines are equitably distributed, so that it’s not just black voters in Ohio waiting in those lines as happened in 2004. And hopefully over the weekend everybody has printed out enough ballots. Rachel Maddow compared the lines to a poll tax, because there’s no telling how many votes are lost. When I see those lines in predominantly white precincts just once I’ll give up the notion that race and politics are involved.

Pennsylvania is the one Kerry state McCain hopes to win. There was no early voting. It all happens tomorrow. It’s going to be packed. Pennsylvania could be this year’s Florida/Ohio.

Fivethirtyeight has some model simulations for McCain wins, including some scenarios without Pennsylvania. All of the scenarios require McCain wins in Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. I’d say he pretty much has to win Ohio as well.

Addendum: The last entry of the Gallup tracking poll gives Obama an eleven point lead nationally.

Here’s a comparative graph of the polls released this morning accounting for the “cell phone effect.” No surprise, when polls include cell phones, Obama does better. But the cell phone cavalry didn’t arrive for Kerry, so I wouldn’t assume anything this time around if I’m in the Obama camp.

Okay, the graph to the left represents the totality of simulated scenarios, the blue representing those indicating an Obama win and the red for McCain. The graph to the right indicates the Obama national leads dealing with the cell phone issue. The orange line polls account for cell phones. Both come from Fivethirtyeight.

Second addendum: Obama ahead in Montana?!

Third addendum: This article suggests that the hardcore gamblers are the best election projectors. They have Obama winning 7 to 1.

Fourth addendum: From MYDD, the final national poll numbers.

Obama McCain
Diageo/Hotline 50 45
Gallup (Trad) 53 42
Gallup (Exp) 53 42
Rasmussen Reports 52 46
Research 2000/dKos 51 45
Composite: 51.50 44.50

There’s a lot more polling than just the tracking polls this morning:


November 2008