Chris Bowers over at MYDD has put together an House race forecast database, which will be updated on a regular basis. Bowers says:
“What I am not worried about is competition. The sheer amount of information I offer in this forecast easily surpasses anything publicly available anywhere in the nation.”
It’s impressive, but I don’t know that the “sheer amount of information” is all that astronomical, but he’s probably right that you won’t find all of this information in any single quick-reference source. I’m sure the professionals will be printing it out regularly. The chart contains the following:
The top 60 House races in the nation, grouped by competitiveness tier.
Meanwhile, Osama is stalking Ned Lamont.
- The names of both the Democratic and Republican candidates in all 60 races.
- The relative cash on hand in all 60 races
- The partisan voting index for all 60 districts
- The 2004 margin in all 60 districts
- The latest poll, if any, from all 60 districts
- Notifications as to whether each district is an open seat, held by a freshman, has a repeat challenger, or has been targeted for ad buys by the DCCC
- Mini-commentary on each district
His projections are probably optimistic (for Democrats). Kos agrees with me:
“And for the record, I still don’t think we’ll win back either chamber. I’ve seen the GOP close the deal too many times before for me to get complacent and cocky. Nah. I think we’ll win 7-14 seats in the House, 3-5 in the Senate.”
The recent polling notwithstanding, I doubt that Virginia, Tennessee, and Nevada are really in play. Casey will probably beat Santorum in Pennsylvania. Brown is looking good in Ohio. And I’ve got a very good feeling about Montana because of an unusually strong Democrat in Tester. But I’d never bet on Missouri, and Chafee will probably pull it out Rhode Island if he wins his primary. One the up side, none of the previously indicated vulnerable Democrats look like they’re going down, not even Maria Cantwell. I say the Democrats pick up 3 (not including the Lamont win over Lieberman, which I believe is relatively certain current polls notwithstanding). I have no idea about the House, except that it appears that the Democrats will gain seats.
Oh, and Osama’s stalking Lamont (photo above from Lamont’s blog).