So the Fortuna Beacon is dead. The Times Standard is shrinking. Greystone Jewelers is closing, along with several other Old Town stores which have closed over the past year or two.
Now Hometown Buffet is closing – which has provided a meal at relatively low expense especially for seniors. A couple of weeks ago I received a telephone call from someone who went to the Bay Shore Mall for a haircut. He noticed that many of the spaces were empty, and the building was run down in places. He took a few photographs before he was approached by a security person who instructed him to stop taking photographs. He complied and put away his camera. Several minutes later he was approached by another security employee, obviously someone with a little more authority. The employee asked the individual for his name. The individual declined to provide the name, and then the employee instructed him to leave the mall. The individual said that he was waiting to get a haircut, but the employee was firm. The individual had broken the rules. Not that such a prohibition is posted or anything, but that was irrelevant.
As reported earlier, it appears that WalMart has found a back door into the community, and I suspect the ultimate goal is to take over the mall, maybe leaving a space or two for PetCo and such.
Unless something is done to bring in some employing investors, I suspect Humboldt County is in for a long period of decline towards a retirement community, with fewer and fewer families – even beyond this particular recession. This is the only time I will comment on the subject as it could be seen as self-serving, but we really need to ask whether spending millions of dollars on lawsuits instead of conferring with potential employers to invest in local infrastructure accordingly. And yes, environmentalist groups really do need to ease up a bit and let something happen every once in a while. While the accusations against environmentalists with regard to economic impacts are overblown, there is an intransigence which does have an economic effect, and which will eventually generate a backlash which could undo crucial environmental regulations.
Not that the other side of the political equation is much better with their constant pushes for more housing and retail development without any kind of plan for an economic base to fuel it all. Of course, the ideological thrust behind this side is that you don’t “plan” anything. You just sort of let it all happen, because the economy isn’t a system, it’s organic, yada, yada, yada.
But we do need planning. And we need community leadership, in office and out, which can venture outside its milieus of ideological comfort and take a holistic look at the situation – and generate a plan. The plan can change, evolve, etc. But right now we’re in trouble, and even the better aspects of the leadership are focused on the short term (which is admittedly daunting). We need a comprehensive vision, anchored in short term reality, but also with a long term economic plan in mind.
I sincerely hope that discussion is the primary theme of the upcoming Supervisor races, because really, none of the smaller stuff is going to matter if we’re headed towards becoming another Trinity County where you see only a handful of people under 40 years old and hardly any kids.
72 comments
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November 30, 2011 at 11:42 am
Hank Sims
Well put.
November 30, 2011 at 12:00 pm
tra
“You just sort of let it all happen, because the economy isn’t a system, it’s organic, yada, yada, yada.”
In my view, a healthy economy should operate more like a garden than, say, a factory. But both gardens and economies do need some planning, and some tending, if you want them to flourish.
November 30, 2011 at 12:07 pm
anon
I’m thinking that a new architecture specialty will be emerging soon to convert vacant malls into small villages. The U.S. was already overbuilt as far as malls and had a soaring vacancy rate nationwide, before the economic downturn. I heard a report yesterday that bank money is starting to flow for apartment construction since home ownership is down.
So, why not convert malls to living spaces. Many have open spaces in the center or at least large glass covered areas. There could be mini parks and alternative energy plants incorporated in the parking areas.
November 30, 2011 at 12:43 pm
Fred Mangels
So, why not convert malls to living spaces?.
That wouldn’t be any different than building houses, 12:07, if people don’t have a way to earn a living and can pay for their living space.
Surprised to read the great post by Eric but I think we’re toast. Even if the anti- business attitude in Humboldt did ease up, you still have the rest of California dragging us down. I don’t see any bright side to the future to this State of No:
The State of No logging, No smoking, No mining, No plastic shopping bags, No fishing, No paper shopping bags, No power plants…..the list goes on and is growing. I see no change on the horizon and I’m scared to death.
November 30, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Eric Kirk
Well Fred, San Francisco is bustling right now, and they’re probably the most restrictive of all counties or municipalities. For all their rants about leaving San Francisco, for every business which leaves about 5 want to come in a replace them.
In fact Fred, it’s the pro-business “red” counties which are in the most trouble in California – Shasta, Kern, etc.
But let’s say that we change our “anti-business” mentality or whatever in Humboldt County? Logging is actually happening right now in the county (I’m seeing more logging trucks on the highway this year than I’ve seen in a decade), but timber prices are way down. If it was environmentalists who killed logging, then shouldn’t the decline in supply have led to higher prices? It’s not making all that much money.
So let’s say we’re pro-smoking and all. What business should we try to attract here?
I really think the most natural investment would come from the high tech industry. Their mid to upper-level employees love to live in places like this, as long as the schools are good, there are good public libraries, museums and other culture, etc. But they also need the infrastructure. Oracle was looking at Somoa some years back, but didn’t make an offer. I wonder if any of the local leadership has contacted Oracle to inquire as to what would bring them here.
The problem is that I think the political old guard doesn’t want new money here. They’re holding onto pipe dreams of a resource extraction-based economy, which I think is dated. And they’re holding onto it so tightly that they won’t give up on a rail line which if possible would be prohibitively expensive to construct and maintain, and probably not render us competitive with other regions.
In my view Fortuna should be approaching companies like Oracle to show them the old mill site. But like certain forces in Eureka, I think they’re obsessed with big box retail – which won’t alter the local demographics and challenge their political dominance. Maybe they’ve made phone calls, I don’t know. But they ought to be knocking on corporate doors in Silicon Valley. Is Fortuna “anti-business?” Because whatever they want to do, there is very little the rest of the county could do to prevent them from acting on property within their own boundaries.
Just a few thoughts.
November 30, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Bruce Ross
Sadly, Eric, that sounds like a lot of rural California.
Weirdly enough, though, Redding shows signs of life despite the official statistics. I’d almost swear we’re picking up some of Humboldt’s famous gray-market business.
November 30, 2011 at 2:02 pm
gulo
Sounds like the mall deserves a photoblog and a few flash-photo mobs. After all, we’re talking about a building full of surveillance cameras, the whole point of which is to invite the public in to walk around and look at shit.
November 30, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Fred Mangels
I think San Francisco and many other big cities seem to prosper just because of location (which made them big cities in the first place) and having a permanent critical mass of people, so to speak. With so many people in one place, there’s bound to be markets for things and jobs.
As far as technology coming to Humboldt, that may be ok in the short term, but I don’t know they’d really want to move up here as you think. Otherwise, most of them wouldn’t live in the Bay Area. They like big cities, as do a lot of a certain kind of people.
Speaking of technology, I’ve been thinking lately that technology is the 800 lb. gorilla in the room as far as job loss goes, and we’ll be seeing it more and more even in my lifetime.
We already see automation taking more and more jobs What used to take 10 guys to manufacture can now be done by one. I think technology is going to steam roll over jobs faster and faster.
I don’t know that it will come in my lifetime, but I’m thinking within the next 50 years, maybe even half that, we’ll have a crisis in unemployment because so many things are done through automation, artificial intelligence and technology in general.
My prediction is that eventually only one in ten people- something along that line, anyway- will be able to have a job, but I probably won’t be around to give the I told you so. We’ve been seeing the beginnings of it already with the newspapers closing and water and gas meter readers losing their jobs.
Mark my words…the end is near!
November 30, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Eric Kirk
Weirdly enough, though, Redding shows signs of life despite the official statistics. I’d almost swear we’re picking up some of Humboldt’s famous gray-market business.
Bruce, I believe Shasta County has actually exceeded Humboldt County in marijuana plants seized in certain years. I don’t know if that means there’s more growing there, more eradication efforts, or Humboldt citizens are simply more experienced in avoiding busts.
But I’m told that the valley is actually recovering somewhat. I think there are signs of recovery, but I’m also concerned about the long term trends which transcend the cycle.
Fred – not all cities do well. Las Vegas is in turmoil, and they’ve got just about the most hands-off policies you can find. And critical mass hasn’t helped Detroit, Deluth, or Cleveland over the years.
But yes, SF is a city on the Pacific Rim and is a major center of commerce. Unfortunately the blue collar element is almost gone for reasons I outlined in my previous endorsement of Richard Marks.
http://kunsoo1024.wordpress.com/2009/10/20/why-im-supporting-richard-marks/
But the point is that the cities are where the liberal policies are strongest. SF has the strongest rent control, and yet people invest in the properties even when the mortgage payments exceed the rent. Businesses complain about the living wage laws, and the health care tax, and other regs. But they come anyway.
The difference is that they have economic planning and their governments actively solicit new businesses looking towards the future.
The high tech people in the Bay Area are working in Silicon Valley, but they’re living in Half Moon Bay, Santa Cruz, La Honda, etc. That’s why the rural coastline of San Mateo County is among the most expensive in real property. When I was a kid, people lived there because they couldn’t afford the city. Yes, the high tech types would love to live here.
November 30, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Bolithio
If it was environmentalists who killed logging, then shouldn’t the decline in supply have led to higher prices?
Perhaps, except other areas, where the bulk of the resource is harvested, do not have the environmental force that CA has. So while CA can provide a superior method of assessment, planning, and implementation, (due to environmentalism) we don’t get a better price to off-set it. The national economy sets the price, not CA’s lessened availability of logs. I think Canada gets a terif on the logs/wood they ship us, but their industry is subsidized by their government, and they have minimal regulation, so its hardly fair for us in CA.
You cant blame environmentalism for killing logging, but the narrative that using land is bad needs to change. In the mean time, the people who can afford to practice ecology and conservation will continue to. How much of the resource do we stand to loose to property speculation in the meantime though?
November 30, 2011 at 3:26 pm
Bruce Ross
Eric,
Over the past decade some very big growers — mainly cartels, or so it’s said — have planted enormous illegal plantations in our warm and friendly forests. Those busts made for big headlines and big numbers.
What you see here since the Obama administration’s change in policies is vastly increased small-time growing, more or less in the open, by locals.
November 30, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Matt
Bottom of the 4th paragraph – it should be “undo” not “undue”
November 30, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Matt
I could be wrong but I think a lot of the logs being cut are being sent to China for milling, so our local millworkers are staying out of work despite the apparent increase in cutting.
Regardless, you can’t just look at Humboldt without seeing the big picture, which is that regular blue collar jobs all over the country are disappearing. It’s a national problem, not just limited to northern CA. Humboldt has the added problem of transportation since we’re up in the middle of nowhere, but the fact is, basic manufacturing is disappearing everywhere. So, what industry would you bring in to employ large numbers of “regular” guys? The company is going to say “yeah but in Humboldt I have to pay $8/hr while in China I can pay $1/day!”
I don’t really see all these lawsuits that you keep mentioning that have apparently stopped large, viable businesses in Humboldt. Maybe an example or two would help refresh my memory.
November 30, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Joe Blow
Finally! Well said. These are the kinds of posts that are pertinent and timely. Too, bad the Times-Standard can’t appreciate substance over personal aggrandizement. Maybe more people would inclined to do business with them. A good start, at least based upon this posting, would be to replace Dave Stancliff with Heraldo.
November 30, 2011 at 4:33 pm
Bolithio
Matt, the price of domestic lumber products is down due to “the economy”. If there was no export option this year there would be much less cutting, and the same amount of local mill jobs. Sure it would be great to export lumber, and in time I belive we will see more of that, particularly when the Asian markets start needing more dimensional lumber products, as opposed to the rough cut forms they are processing themselves now. But for now, in this instance, it hasnt been an outsourcing decision, it was simply a market opportunity that we are all benefiting from.
November 30, 2011 at 4:36 pm
Anonymous
What lawsuits would you be talking about?
November 30, 2011 at 5:33 pm
Not A Native
Yeah Eric, your comment that less oversight of development would ber a good thing, IS self serving(ala your SHCP connection).
My assessment: tech companies aren’t lured by cheap real estate. They can afford to locate in expensive locations because they have modest real estate needs because most of their value is their people and procedures, not machinery and buildings. What they absolutely need is ready access to a pool of people with talent, skills and motivation. People who can easily work cooperatively or independently. Innovative people whose pride is their accomplishments, not their lineage. People with passion to excel. Typically those people are highly educated and ranked high in their academic courses.
What HumCo particually lacks is those kind of people. Essentially, HumCo is a intellectual and achievement desert with many ‘self taught’, ‘everything I need to know I learned in kindergarten’, ‘hard work means lifting and carrying heavy objects for long periods of time’ residents. Those people have no appeal at all to tech companies which is why those kinds of enterprises have no reason to locate here.
November 30, 2011 at 5:33 pm
gpf
” ..replace Dave Stancliff with Heraldo..”
Dave Stancliff has soul and courage. Who is this Heraldo?
November 30, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Eric Kirk
The county has now spent three million dollars on the Tooby Ranch lawsuit, from which it is unlikely to get anything. I have opinions on the lawsuit, but because I am an attorney representing some of the secondary defendants I am not going to discuss it in much detail on the blog as I prefer to keep the blog and my business separate. But the county has spent three million, with no end in sight, while cutting home health care for seniors and a slew of other services. The money goes straight to out-of-county attorneys. It’s hard to discuss the local economy and budget woes without bringing it up, but that’s as far as I’m going to go.
As for my self-interest, well, we attorneys are doing just fine with the lawsuit. But I would like to see it ended.
NAN – the lawsuit has no bearing on the park, as it is not in a Williamson Act contract and therefor is not a party to the suit.
November 30, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Derf
Don’t worry, Fred. You wouldn’t live long enough to say “I told you so” if you had the lifespan of a redwood.
November 30, 2011 at 6:19 pm
anon
that’s weird, i click on Hank Sims above and get the Northcoast Journal…a joke?
November 30, 2011 at 6:55 pm
longwind
Good discussion and sound thinking. There’s one high-tech area in which we already excel. If we had any leadership at all, we would be leading HSU and small businesses toward the medical cannabis research areas that are already worth millions, and growing rapidly. Instead, the county gratuitously declares research itself to be illegal (read the latest ordinance to be approved December 13th). Why?
What Eric says about the old guard not wanting new industries goes double for, ahem, our existing industrial base. It’s mind-boggling how contemptuous of economic reality our county has become, since our economic base shifted from redwood trees to marijuana plants.We should discuss whether we want an economy at all, or if we’d prefer to become the next Ukiah, a glob of cheap subdivisions for Bay strangers to retire to. Me, I’d rather have an economy here, so we can keep families here, even at the risk of some economic development. But it’s become crystal-clear that many people bafflingly in power don’t want our economy to be built on anything but public employment. This just doesn’t make sense to me, and I’d love to discuss the issues publicly. I’m not hostile to government, but someone has to pay for it, or even those super-secure jobs get shaky.
What do other people think, should we build on our strengths or not? I understand the feds don’t make this easy–but they haven’t made it uniformly hard, either, for the communities smart enough to plan for their futures. Why don’t we?
November 30, 2011 at 7:42 pm
Anonymous
“Unless something is done to bring in some employing investors, ”
A moritorium on national chain retail/restaurant needs to be implemented. We’re still in the wake of kmart target costco bayshore mall coming to town. Economic adjustment doesn’t happen overnight, but closer to ten year cycles. Very easy to measure in a place like Humboldt.
November 30, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Samoasoftball
Eric: Great opinion observation. Things are not complete doom and gloom as far as the Harbor District is concerned. A year before I took office there was only 1 ship for the whole year and the District looked on the verge of being bankrupt. We have had multple ships per month at times since and we may have over 25 ships next year. We are in the black now, even though I am not thrilled to see raw material in the form of logs and wood chips leaving the area. But the Harbor District is moving forward to garnering funds for a mobile crane that can be leased to dock operators to send finished product such as lumber in containers in the near future. This is creating living wage jobs for many in the county. But, man, we need another buffett! How about a home spun like Hodels in Bakersfield?
November 30, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Anonymous
the fudge do you care about hometown buffet, samoasoftball…your fast food franchise dream is coming true! in n’ out….mmmm….more national franchises to make more of the local joints you don’t eat at instead go out of business….thanks for that!
November 30, 2011 at 9:16 pm
Samoasoftball
8:17pm- I can tell you you I shop more local places to eat than franchises. I just eat alot. That is a “me” problem. I work out at Cal Courts though, locally owned and operated.
Mid 50′s 6′ 210 and active. Will be playing softball this weekend against 20 year olds and running in the outfield. What will you be doing?
November 30, 2011 at 9:37 pm
Anonymous
Interesting…I can see other Anonymi comments awaiting moderation just by having previously posted as Anonymous….
I don’t doubt your local loyalty, samoasoftball…but that’s beside the point of plugging new fast food franchises in a dwindling market. Eat what you like…if ever there was an addiction, you won’t be s—— d— (this is a family blog – EVK) for a cheeseburger anytime soon I’m sure.
What will I be doing? Plenty…it will include being a sarcastic smartass on these blogs a couple times, fo sho. But only for good causes. ;P
December 1, 2011 at 12:26 am
Matt
I always thought somebody should talk with Medtronic about opening a manufacturing facility here. They used to manufacture their heart stents in Santa Rosa but then closed the plant down and moved it all to Ireland a few years ago. Instead of Ireland, Humboldt would be much closer and more convenient for their Santa Rosa based engineers, and potentially lower payroll costs (compared to Santa Rosa) due to the lower cost of living up here than in Santa Rosa.
As an aside, that was a sad move when they closed down their Santa Rosa manufacturing. A lot of people down there lost good jobs, though I suppose the Irish need good jobs too.
December 1, 2011 at 7:49 am
Mitch
Eric,
I think high tech would have two demands before even thinking about locating a hq here: good government and good air service.
There will continue to be individuals in high tech who are able to work from home but, for any sort of headquarters to move here, a company would need confidence that it has an anytime route to Silicon Valley and/or elsewhere that takes less than 8 hours. And I can’t imagine a company risking relocating here without confidence that there is a competent government that looks out for newcomers, instead of propping up the existing good-old networks.
Physical location for a hq is also, in general, extremely dependent on a critical mass of people with the skills and information needed by the company. Because of that, I think the only sort of tech that is likely to relocate or locate here is going to be tech associated with Humboldt’s dwindling resources: timber, fishing, etc… The trick, I think, is going to keep the home-grown high-value companies from leaving.
If HSU became a major center of knowledge about a specific topic, that would make a substantial difference. I guess the Redwood Sciences Lab is an already existing example, but I’m not aware of any substantial forest-specific high tech employment in the area.
December 1, 2011 at 8:51 am
Eric Kirk
Mitch – I don’t know that I would expect anybody to bring their HQ here. I’m hoping more for a regional operations for a company looking for a livable spot with lower costs of living than the urban areas. Other states have capitalized.
And to the poster who wants to discuss the McKee case, I am happy to discuss it with anyone offline. Again, my experience has convinced me that the blog is a poor choice of forum for certain issues, and that is one of them. I will say that your understanding of the case is in error. It’s much, much more complicated. The media has not, and really cannot, do the case justice in the space that it has.
Richard – I’m glad to hear that there’s more shipping. Is it the logs, or something else?
December 1, 2011 at 8:52 am
Anonymous
Am I missing something here, Eric’s comments from November 30, 2011 at 5:35 pm, had you not posted something from NAN that talked about the “Tooby Ranch” law suit? Because I can’t read that into what NAN said. FYI, I thought it was the “Buck Mountain Ranch and Bob McKee” suit? And you didn’t say anything about your SHCP connection, since it was “Buck Mountain Ranch and Bob McKee” that had title to the SHCP in the first place. Thank You Eric for: “I prefer to keep the blog and my business separate”. Glad to see you have “no comment” because of being in litigation with “secondary defendants”. Do you ever get “primary defendants”?
December 1, 2011 at 9:53 am
Plain Jane
There are millions of people who do, or can work over the internet, who can live virtually anywhere and don’t do a lot of work related travel. I am one of them. Today’s technology could make most business travel unnecessary with an attitude adjustment. For how long can we justify burning fossil fuel to do business which can be done over the internet just as effectively, not to mention the millions of wasted hours in travel (and expense) in a country where we take fewer vacation hours than any other first world country?
December 1, 2011 at 9:56 am
Plain Jane
Has everyone seen the National Geographic video, “Collapse?”
December 1, 2011 at 11:13 am
Mitch
PJ,
I’m one too. That doesn’t mean I expect a high tech company to locate its headquarters here. But, as Eric pointed out, that wasn’t his expectation.
I’m sure more and more people who are able to work from home will relocate to places like Humboldt, but I’m not sure what that does for people who grow up here, unless they are able to work from home as well.
December 1, 2011 at 11:42 am
Plain Jane
People who work from home still spend money and pay taxes, Mitch, and they aren’t competing for the available in-person jobs locally.
December 1, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Andrew Bird
Hello everyone. Great discussion going on here.
Right now at the Capitol there is a joint hearing on Clean Energy Manufacturing Opportunities in California – just the type of industry we would love to attract to Humboldt.
It’s being broadcast live right now on the California Channel. http://www.calchannel.com/channel/live/4
It will be archived at Cal Channel later after the hearing is over.
December 1, 2011 at 12:51 pm
Mitch
PJ,
I’m not sure who you’re arguing with, because I’m not arguing. By all means, I hope Humboldt attracts more people who work from home.
December 1, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Plain Jane
“I’m not sure what that does for people who grow up here, unless they are able to work from home as well.”
Not arguing Mitch. Just making the point that people who work from home help to create jobs for those who can’t.
December 1, 2011 at 8:34 pm
moviedad
Crazy to hear someone use the same ol’ tired (false) narrative that people who care about the environment and quality of life; are responsible for the wrecked economy. Greedy Thieves looting the treasury and the pension funds of millions of Americans get a complete pass.
What is going to save Humboldt/Trinity/Mendocino counties is what they already possess. Wild spaces, clean water, clean air. Who knows what kind of jobs there’s going to be in the future? I don’t. But I don’t think that’s the issue. Where are people going to want to live? Now that’s a good question. I think this area is going to be so high on the “Quality of Life Index” that whatever jobs, whatever resources people have; they’re going to bring those things with them. We haven’t yet seen a true exodus from the urban areas. But just wait for a few more Katrinas, and a couple of Earthquakes. and then you’ll be manning the barricades to keep the hordes South of Willits.
December 2, 2011 at 6:57 am
Fred Mangels
Speaking of jobs, something that hasn’t really gotten much attention from the media is how many jobs might have been lost from the consolidation of all Eureka’s Safeway stores and pharmacy.
I’d heard bits and pieces about the new Safeway and the closing of at least one of the older ones. I noticed the other day that both old Safeways closed upon the opening of their superstore and even the Safeway pharmacy- formerly Henderson Center Pharmacy- closed. I guess the new superstore is replacing the 3 of the other ones.
I know many employees just moved to the superstore, but I can’t help but think a number of them must have lost jobs after the consolidation.
December 2, 2011 at 8:11 am
Bolithio
I asked some people who work there and they said everyone was offered a job at the new safeway – and they had to hire a few more. Not sure how many. I thought it was strange to put a pharmacy next to a pharmacy though, and a little conniving to chose a Starbucks, right next to Jitter Bean… Could they not have chosen the bank-safeway layout like fortuna?
December 2, 2011 at 8:34 am
Dave Kirby
At this point Marijuana is the glue that is holding the local economy together. There are a lot of jobs out there in the retail industry going wanting because of competition from the more lucrative pot industry. If you ask any local employer what the hardest thing is about doing business in this county is it will be finding and keeping good help.
As for the tech industry…it provides very few blue collar jobs. Virtually all the assembly of their products is done off shore.
The timber industry is on its ass because the housing market is dead. We can’t sell the stuff that’s already built.
The real cloud on the horizon is the air going out of the Marijuana bubble. It is the main engine that is driving prosperity for many. The fact is we finally grew more than anyone can smoke and as the supply continues to out pace demand the prices will continue to erode.
December 2, 2011 at 9:00 am
Plain Jane
I don’t buy that Bolithio. I know a woman who worked at the Harris Street Safeway who had to take a transfer to Fortuna to keep her job and she had worked there for at least 20 years.
December 2, 2011 at 9:01 am
Anonymous
2 weeks ago, 34 tons of marijuana found in a tunnel coming from Mexico. Before that 18 tons, before that 9 tons. It is estimated that 1000 tons of pot comes in from Mexico. Add our large scale diesel growers, and the Buddha-ville mentality growers, who think nothing of flattening a mountain top, well, pot is abundant and cheap.
December 2, 2011 at 9:42 am
Bolithio
Actually, your right Jane, what people had told me was that everyone was offered a job at a local safeway, not necessarily the new one. Mind you I have only spoken with 2 employees who I new just from shopping (not really friends or anything) so my source is as credible as that.
December 2, 2011 at 10:06 am
Eric Kirk
The real cloud on the horizon is the air going out of the Marijuana bubble. It is the main engine that is driving prosperity for many. The fact is we finally grew more than anyone can smoke and as the supply continues to out pace demand the prices will continue to erode.
Maybe that’s what’s behind latest federal crackdowns – protectionism and stimulus.
December 2, 2011 at 10:25 am
anon
the marijuana industry locally is still going strong because of the persistence of the buyers, they keep coming up…
December 2, 2011 at 10:34 am
Fred Mangels
bolithio wrote, I thought it was strange to put a pharmacy next to a pharmacy though, and a little conniving to chose a Starbucks, right next to Jitter Bean….
I was surprised when we got that second Walgreen’s that Safeway sits next to now. My thinking being we have more than enough pharmacies in Eureka already. But, that Walgreen’s seemed to get more than enough customers. Seems like pharmacies are a lucrative business no matter where they’re located.
Then again, I think the old Henderson Center Pharmacy lost at least some business when they became the Safeway pharmacy. I know I didn’t like the “corner drugstore” becoming a chain store, but I moved to Rite Aid more because it made sense, not so much the name change.
I did notice, though, Rite Aid had a banner out front welcoming former Safeway customers after the switch. Don’t know if that was a sales technique, or they were actually getting a bunch of new customers. Doesn’t look any busier in there now to me than it used to.
I finally figured it just made sense to switch to Rite- Aid since I was in there all the time, anyway. Why bother going the extra distance to Henderson Center Pharmacy? Plus, HCP (I forget their more recent name) was quite popular and you spend less time waiting at Rite Aid.
Some sort of bank branch would have made sense at the Safeway superstore, too. The closest banks or credit unions are either downtown or in Henderson Center, except for the Patelco Credit Union just behind the old Safeway.
December 2, 2011 at 2:15 pm
tra
The basic issues for the local economy are how much income is brought into the local economy, and how well that income is distributed and recirculated locally.
Just building more big box retailers and other coroprate-owned chain stores does not produce any actual wealth and it does not increase the flow of dollars into the county, it just redirects more of the existing retail dollars to the corporate retailers at the expense of locally-owned retailers.
Meanwhile these corporate retailers actually decrease the amount of existing wealth that is re-circulated locally by paying low wages, siphoning off the profits and sending that wealth out of the county to the corporate owners.
December 2, 2011 at 2:33 pm
Mitch
I basically agree with tra, but need to acknowledge a big “BUT.” The “but” is about what happens within the local economy.
If a local retailer’s prices are higher than those of a big box national chain’s, more money moves from the shoppers to the owners of the local retailer than would move from the shoppers to the owners of the big box. Or, if the local indeed pays it workers better, more money flows from the shoppers to the local store’s workers.
Yes, local has the potential to be better. But that potential can be abused if locals engage in price gouging. Small, local operations will probably always need to charge slightly higher prices than national chains, if only because they have less negotiating power. That’s fine, and I’d prefer to go with a local if their prices are within reason.
But if prices are way out-of-whack, the local is not necessarily better.
It DOES depend on the behavior of the participants. I think that is why so many people find themselves offended when a group wants to step in and prevent so-called “free market competition.”
As it happens, I side with those who would lock Wal-Marts out of Humboldt, because I recognize the damage they’ve done and do, and the externalized costs they impose on everyone else.
But I wish, as I always have, that those who agreed with me would recognize that there are opposing arguments that have some merit, and they need to be acknowledged and responded to, rather than GFY’d.
(I realize, tra, that you are about the best commenter around in terms of doing this acknowledgement of the arguments of the opponent, so hopefully you won’t be offended. This is a general point I feel needs to be made more frequently in these days of Occupy.)
December 2, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Eric Kirk
I just walked Fifth Street from E to the Courthouse earlier today;, and there were between five and ten vacant storefronts. I’m glad to see the unemployment rate drop nationally, but it’s going to hurt here for a long time.
December 2, 2011 at 3:18 pm
tra
I’m not offended at all, Mitch, and I do agree with you that the money people “save” by purchasing at a lower price at a big-box or other corporate chain store is part of the equation, too. Another factor would be the amount of money that Humboldt County residents spend at those kinds of stores outside the county (such as in Crescent City or Ukiah, or Redding) but that these residents might instead spend here in Humboldt if there were more Big Boxes and whatnot here. And I suppose there are probably some purchases that are currently made online that might instead be purchased at a new local Big Box.
So those are all factors that would contribute to the role that new Big Boxes and other corporate chain stores would play in the local economy. But for the most part we’re talking about most of the retail dollars simply being diverted from one Humboldt retailer to another. So, on balance, I suspect that a whole lot more will be lost than gained if local retail becomes even more dominated by big out-of-area-owned corporate operations.
I totally agree that acknowledging and addressing opposing arguments and differing points of view is something that is all too often lacking in what passes for political discourse. A lot of people are content to talk right past each other — it’s quicker and easier than engaging in a real discussion.
December 2, 2011 at 3:24 pm
Not A Native
TRA’s analysis of the local retail business is overly simplistic with a limited understanding. In particular it assumes that retail spending is constant(based only on population) and people here have no disposable money that they can choose to spend in various ways.
The fact is that most people here aren’t living a subsistence existence where all their money must be spent on consumables and they buy durables only out of desperate need. People here, just like elsewhere in the US, often make purchases simply to acquire something new, on a whim, or to generate attention from their social group. A significant amount of retail goes for gift giving of non utilitarian items. Thats what Black Friday is all about.
Retail is just one way that the many people here with disposable income can choose to spend their money. They can choose to purchase travel, entertainment, durable goods(automobile, appliance, new mobile phone), redecorate their dwelling, purchase an investment(including rental property or a bank CD). Some of those purchases must be made with local retailers(and service providers) and some not. Local retail is not a zero sum game. Retailers here can “create” more purchases by using marketing methods(including product selection) to cause people to desire their offerings more than other things that are not local. Someone could choose to redecorate their home instead of taking an out of area trip.
December 2, 2011 at 4:08 pm
Anonymous
…whereas not a native’s entire argument is based on the fantasy that people’s disposable income isn’t rapidly dwindling.
Not just the coming of target, the bayshore mall etc. but the price of gas has doubled over the past 5 years, and quadrupled in the past 10. The effects are still sinking in. People are being hit by multiple sledgehammers.
The idea that somebody “saves” via spending at all is also a fantasy produced by the same commercial code of (non)ethics that makes Not A Native believe Black Friday is some kind of holiday unto itself, having something to do with giving, not spending. It’s a complete farce.
December 2, 2011 at 5:02 pm
tra
NAN,
Sure, there are a lot of variables, but in my judgement the bottom line is that most retail sales at new corporate-owned Big Boxes and other chain stores will come at the expense of retail sales at existing local retailers (including some locally-owned ones), and that the overall result of this will be a net loss of income and wealth in this community. Do you disagree?
December 2, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Mitch
The thing that amazes me, Eric, is that the owners of those storefronts appear to be willing to let them sit empty rather than lease them out at lower rates.
Remember 3-2-1 Coffee in Old Town? That location, as far as I know, has been vacant since the owner shut 3-2-1 Coffee down by trying to raise their rent. What’s it been, three years?
December 2, 2011 at 5:23 pm
tra
With all the vacant retail and commercial space in downtown Eureka, along with the vacancies at the Bayshore Mall and elsewhere, obviously the solution is to add even more commerical and retail space in the form of Arkley’s Marina Center. Oh, and let’s not forget the 200,000 square feet of commercial and retail space planned for the Forster-Gill mega-subdivision in Ridgewood.
High vacancy rates + more new spaces to fill + (magic) = prosperity. It’s a formula that can’t possibly miss!
December 2, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Anonymous
“The thing that amazes me, Eric, is that the owners of those storefronts appear to be willing to let them sit empty rather than lease them out at lower rates.”
I wondered the same thing way back in highschool. Big companies get all kinds of tax breaks, financial kickdowns, etc. that we don’t know about because the commercial code of (non)ethics benefits from consumer ignorance. Basically, when a site has a declared value, it’s to the owner’s benefit to defer the site altogether than leaes it for less, as the money they get as compensation for its vacancy is much greater, surrounding property is valued higher, consumers are forced to adjust their finances instead, etc. etc. etc.
December 2, 2011 at 7:47 pm
Bolithio
The “magic”, is time.
December 2, 2011 at 10:05 pm
Anonymous
A little over a month ago, I visited the Bayshore Mall for the first time in a few years. My destination was Sears, because I needed a major appliance I could not buy in SoHum, and Sears had it on sale, with 0% 6-month financing. Kenmore stuff has a pretty good reputation, so we thought we’d take a look. I was shocked at all of the empty storefronts in the mall. Jay and I decided to “go for a walk” to decide whether or not to make our purchase at Sears, so we walked the length of the mall, and back. That really gave us an opportunity to see just how empty the mall has become.
Less than a year ago, at our business, we had received a letter from the Bayshore Mall operators, inviting us (beseeching us, actually) to relocate the ASIS office from Garberville to the Mall. Now wouldn’t *that* be convenient for us (a commute!) and our customers (not!) Not to mention that when you are a tenant at the mall, your business hours must conform to the mall’s hours. But seeing all of those empty storefronts makes me understand why they tried to recruit us.
During our walk, we decided that buying the appliance was a smart and necessary purchase, so we returned to Sears, and found the nice clerk who had helped us look at everything, and closed the deal with her, so she’d get her commission. She agreed that the mall is losing a lot of tenants, but she said Sears is still busy.
Funny, when I first moved here in 1983, I think there were both a Sears and a Wards outlet/catalog place in Garberville, plus regular stores of both types in Eureka in the old “down town”. When malls started to replace down towns, it seems conventional department stores like Wards, Sears, Macy’s, etc. were “anchors” at each end of the mall, while boutique shops filled in the middle. Pretzel stores. T-shirt stores. Cookie stores, and candy stores. Cutlery stores. Joke stores. Seasonal kiosks. And of course, the food court! But the boutique shops and food courts can’t survive if not enough people are traipsing through the mall. I don’t know if Sears is really doing all that great; I only have what our sales clerk said to go by. But I *do* know that, when I was a kid, Sears, Wards and Kmart were down town, sold pretty much everything, had a candy counter, and even a cafeteria or a lunch counter. Growing up in southern California in the 1960′s/1970′s, I saw the demise of thriving downtowns, and the rise of Mall culture. It is something I’ve always found very sad.
December 3, 2011 at 7:08 am
Anonymous
Bolithio,
It takes a lot of time to make up for three years of vacancy, unless 5:43 is correct about property owners getting money as compensation for vacancy. (I’ve never heard of such a thing, but maybe I’ve missed it.)
If a typical lease is for a decade, it would have to be priced 30% higher for ten years if your strategy is to let the property sit waiting for three years to find a lessee willing to take your rate. More if you use net present value in your calculations.
5:43, do you have details of the payments landlords receive for letting their commercial real estate sit idle?
December 3, 2011 at 7:09 am
Mitch
7:08 was me.
December 3, 2011 at 7:21 am
Mitch
Hmmm, confusing stuff at wordpress. In any event, the gist of my 7:08 was that it would take a lease rate at least 30% higher than would otherwise be necessary if a property owner’s business strategy is to leave their property idle for three years in hopes of finding a ten year lessee willing to pay the rate. More if net present value is used in the calculations.
And I’d also responded to a comment that now seems to be gone, suggesting that business owners get financial benefits from letting their property sit idle. Anyone know if that’s true? I doubt it, but I’m increasingly inclined to believe that anything is possible when it comes to money and wealth.
December 3, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Anonymous
yes, mitch, it’s true. i looked into it many years ago when i learned that there were entire skyscrapers vacant in detroit. it’s not the same as if you or i owned a single house or commercial lot in addition to our living space. Income and assets reach a point where all the perks kick in, multi-tier systems that you’ve gotta hire business professionals to do the work for you if you’re just a layman. These people are very wealthy, the properties belong in their pool of assets, and operate at a loss (so to speak) so they get all kinds of breaks and benefits. it’s government pampering the wealthiest, who look after their own financial interest at our expense by keeping prices as high as possible. You no doubt understand there are all kinds of tax loopholes and writeoffs that we non-millionairres aren’t privy to…it’s because it’s better for them that we don’t. Again, I don’t remember all the details, it was over ten years ago, but it made me sick to think it. Same thing with commercial properties here. there’s a vacant restaurant a few blocks from me that hasn’t had a tenant in almost 3 years. They want $6,000/month rent. Absolutely ridiculous, right? It would cost us an arm and a leg to let it sit if that’s all we had…except it’s costing the owner nothing to keep it idle.
December 3, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Anonymous
…it’s costing him nothing to keep it idle, because with his combined other assets and all kinds of crazy calculations and loopholes, he qualifies for some other break that makes it worthwhile. Hence, he needs $6,000/month to offset what he gets through some roundabout backdoor break in another financial department. Again, i’m a layman, but that’s the jist.
December 3, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Sally
For what it’s worth, my 12/2 10:05 pm comment came out as “anonymous”, and was held in moderator approval limbo, because I’d reformatted my computer. I did not mean to post anonymously (but if you read my post, you’d know that, from all the personal info it revealed.)
December 3, 2011 at 8:01 pm
Bolithio
Mitch, I hear you. It must completely depend on the owners resources. Well that, and maybe the possibility that even with a lower lease, there isnt any business to fill it anyways.
When I said ‘time’, I was thinking more like the fact that in ‘some’ period of time, population will force itself into those places. More people, more need for products and services. As population grows, more people will live here and require essential services and products.
As for the people who own the buildings now, isn’t it all basically luck? Who knows. People came up big here during the housing boom. How many people do you know who bought that house in Eureka (or wherever) for 125$ only to sell it for 320$ 4 years later? And of course all the people who bought those houses *ahem* got screwed by the banks. Im sure the owners are feeling the hurt from those downtown vacancies. But hurt is relative. (And 2:47 makes a good point)
December 3, 2011 at 9:06 pm
Anonymous
Nobody is looking in the right place. Yeah, the mall is dead, but go look at the new casino-style hospital at the other end of Eureka. The new mall in town is “pill hill”, and apparently, the new economic engine for our ailing selves.
It’s puzzling how pharmacies, medical franchises of every stripe and flavor and hospitals, clinics, and specialty medical boutiques are gonna save us, but Hum County economic advisory committee says medical “industry” is the new boon.
That’s where all our “disposable” income is supposed to go, although how anyone can afford it is beyond me.Maybe we’re supposed to become a medical tourist destination?
Guess we’re sposta get jobs there swabbing the floors (although I didn’t see anyone doing that when visiting a friend at the hospital), and hope that then we can get into the beds and try to get cured our consumption..
December 3, 2011 at 9:11 pm
moviedad
I suppose anyone could cheat the government if they have enough money to invest in it. Most of us are too busy investing in rent and utilities.
December 4, 2011 at 10:30 am
Anonymous
“…and maybe the possibility that even with a lower lease, there isnt any business to fill it anyways.”
“When I said ‘time’, I was thinking more like the fact that in ‘some’ period of time, population will force itself into those places.”
Occupancy depends entirely on affordability. There are countless people all over who would LOVE to startup a business but can’t afford the ridiculous commercial rates. Look at detroit, population is huge, entire streets are vacant of businesses. Especially in newer strip malls, as seen plaguing the southern landscape of this state. They’re all occupied by nationally owned businesses often in usual groups as per big money (non-local) investors who have no passion for the product just the profit…blockbuster/subway. Hollywood/quiznos. Footlocker/cellphone store/ Panda express/etc. etc. etc. they flop but the real owners (not locally hired help, who get [got] the shaft) still made out like bandits and just dump their money into some other temporary minimum wage farce of “employment opportunity.”
December 4, 2011 at 11:06 am
Anonymous
” but Hum County economic advisory committee says medical “industry” is the new boon”
If that’s true, it’s really scary. Dependent on the people’s cost of their own failing health for economic stability?
…maybe they’re talking about weeeeeeed…..
February 16, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Eric Kirk
Glad to see you have “no comment” because of being in litigation with “secondary defendants”. Do you ever get “primary defendants”?
Somehow the comment only just came through for approval. I understand that you’re trying for some kind of slight, but do you know how stupid the question is?