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This pretty much sums up their predictive value.
Eight years ago, Gallup poll, 9/19-21/2003:
Wes Clark 22
Howard Dean 13
John Kerry 11
Dick Gephardt 11
Joe Lieberman 10
Howard Dean 13
John Kerry 11
Dick Gephardt 11
Joe Lieberman 10
Four years ago, Gallup poll, 9/14-16/2007:
Hillary Clinton 47
Barack Obama 25
John Edwards11
Barack Obama 25
John Edwards11
….
Rudy Giuliani 30
Fred Thompson 22
John McCain 18
Mitt Romney 7
Fred Thompson 22
John McCain 18
Mitt Romney 7

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