Calitics addresses the question.
As this Kos post notes, the changing state demographics towards non-white and young voters doesn’t bode well for Republican futures. The state GOP is heavily influenced by cultural conservatives in the valley and Orange County, and that used to be enough to combine with Republican moderates to guarantee Republican wins statewide. But since the massive military industry shutdowns of the 1990s and the rise of the high tech industries at about the same time, it has been difficult for the Republicans to field a candidate which can survive a hard-right primary and have serious chances in the general election.
Earlier this decade they managed to slip Schwarzenegger by that process through the Davis recall, after having failed badly with a hapless right wing candidate in the prior election. This year the Democrats swept the statewide races, with the closest race being so probably because the Democratic candidate’s name is Kamala. The Republicans squandered their two opportunities for House turnovers, and quite frankly I don’t believe a Senate turnover was ever a very serious possibility. In the state legislature, the Republicans actually lost an Assembly seat. This in the “year of the tea party,” in which Republicans were angry and hungry, and Democrats demoralized and apathetic.
It’s not going to get easier for them. The Hispanic vote leans Democrat heavily, and they represent 22 percent of the electorate and growing. Meg Whitman took the white vote and the over-65 vote, but as more baby-boomers slip into the latter category the more conservative causes will lose their stranglehold there.
The other problem they have is that the moderate Republican is becoming an endangered species. About the only real “conservative” takeover I can find statewide was in Humboldt County, and the new Supervisor representing the Eureka area, Virginia Bass, has left the GOP. By her account, the social issues were a heavy factor.
The top-two primary could offer Republicans opportunities to put up moderate candidates since they don’t have to survive the primaries, but it’s just as likely that races could fall between a liberal and a moderate Democrat, with the Republican Party being shut out of statewide races altogether.
9 comments
Comments feed for this article
November 29, 2010 at 8:32 am
Tapperass
and quite frankly I don’t believe a Senate turnover was ever a very serious possibility.
I agree Erik. No matter how badly Boxer’s record was being criticized nationally, she still had the support of her state.
In my observation, there has not been a Republican in CA that has a buzz on the national level for a while, our outgoing GOV aside. Ever since Pete Wilson decided to be Governor, and that Michael Huffington character was buying full page ads in the L.A. Times in 1992, the GOP in California has been active, but not able to garner momentum to push their candidates into prominence.
California is still very blue.
November 29, 2010 at 8:40 am
Tapperass
I failed to realize we were talking about State Senate. Wow! Republicans an endangered species in CA?
I think something will eventually happen to galvanize them. The opportunity has not presented itself yet.
November 29, 2010 at 9:03 am
Eric Kirk
No, I was talking about Boxer. The State Senate wasn’t even in the realm of possibility.
And they’re already galvanized. That’s part of their problem.
November 29, 2010 at 9:34 am
Fred Mangels
Tapperass wrote, “Republicans an endangered species in CA? ”
Keep in mind that while there’s plenty of blame to go around, the Democrats take the lion’s share of the blame for the state California is in, having held the state legislature for 30 years or more. Now that the Democrats can pass a budget without Republican involvement, they can’t point fingers at the Republicans any more for that.
Granted, the majority of Californians don’t seem to have a grasp on what’s been going on is the state, are naive and very gullible to whatever line the government employee unions toss out.
But, as the state continues its decline, with the Democrats completely in charge, perhaps the voters will have an epiphany and realize that not just the Democrats, but they themselves have been the problem all along? Maybe there’ll be a shift in sentiment in the state after a few years of continuing decline?
I don’t think the majority of Californians are capable of seeing the forest thru the trees and don’t know that Republicans are capable of fixing it. This state is unfixable, but I see the potential for a big turnaround, politically, in this state now that the Democrats are completely in charge.
November 29, 2010 at 9:47 am
Eric Kirk
That’s assuming the state continues to decline Fred. Your worst nightmare will be if it doesn’t.
November 29, 2010 at 10:22 am
Fred Mangels
Not really. I’m scared to death at what might happen.
November 29, 2010 at 1:49 pm
Ernie's Place
There is hardly anything more unpopular in California than Barbara Boxer. The only thing more unpopular would have to be a major corporation. Even more unpopular than that would be a CEO of a major corporation. Even more unpopular would be a CEO of a major corporation that gave your job to China… Like Carly Fiorina.
Hell, even Jerry Brown could beat a profile like that. Oh, hey, wait a minute…
Ralph the street sweeper would have easily won in the governor or senator race. What the hell were the Repubs thinking? Do they think that we are really that forgiving? Or, do they think that we are just that stupid?
November 29, 2010 at 4:40 pm
mresquan
“The other problem they have is that the moderate Republican is becoming an endangered species.”
I kind of disagree here Eric.In the last primary,the more moderate candidates were given the nod,probably with Fiorina being the exception.I saw Whitman as a bit more moderate than Poisner,and the tea party candidates got clocked big time,again Fiorina being the exception,and she was clocked in November regardless.
December 1, 2010 at 10:44 pm
Anonymous
viva la reconquista!