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So as of August 12 Chris Bowers confirms 43 certain votes for the public option. He wrote:
Among the twenty Senators who are still left to target (only 63 total Senators are even potentially reachable on this issue), they break down into the following groups:
* Conservadems (11): Evan Bayh (IN), Mark Begich (AK), Tom Carper (DE), Herb Kohl (WI), Mary Landrieu (LA), Joe Lieberman (CT), Blanche Lincoln (AR), Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Mark Pryor (AR), Mark Warner (VA). Overall, eleven of the fifteen Senate “conservadems” are either on the fence, or publicly opposed.
* Other Democrats (6): Max Baucus (MT), Robert Byrd (WV), Kent Conrad (NF), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Jon Tester (MT), and Ron Wyden (OR).
* Republicans (3): Susan Collins (ME), Johnny Isakson (GA), and Olympia Snowe (ME).
With 43 supporters of the public option, we only need seven of these twenty Senators to flip in order to pass the public option through reconciliation. Even amid the din of right-wing astroturf protesters and a media giddy at the prospect of health care reform failure, meaningful health care reform is very doable in 2009.
If it is at all possible for you, find an event targeted at one of the twenty Senators listed above, and attend it.
Nate Silver thinks there are five more relatively certain public option votes. If you add Baucus, that’s 49. Obama just has to lean on two Senators and get the matter to a vote while Kennedy is still alive. Jon Tester, also from Montana, seems like a good candidate. Evan Bayh seems like another.
| STATE/SENATOR | Public Option? | Available Day One? | Nationally Available? | Can Bargain for Rates? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK – Begich (D) | Maybe (via email) | Maybe (via email) | Maybe (via email) | Maybe (via email) |
| AR – Lincoln (D) | Maybe | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| AR – Pryor (D) | Maybe | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| CA – Boxer (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| CA – Feinstein (D) | Yes | Yes | Maybe | Dodges (via email) |
| CO – Bennet (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Maybe | Dodges (via email) |
| CO – Udall (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Maybe | Dodges (via email) |
| CT- Dodd (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| CT – Lieberman (I) | No | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| DE – Carper (D) | Maybe | |||
| DE – Kaufman (D) | Yes | |||
| FL – Bill Nelson (D) | Maybe (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| GA – Isakson (R) | Maybe | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| HI – Akaka (D) | Yes | |||
| HI – Inouye (D) | Yes | |||
| IA – Harkin (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| IL – Burris (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| IL – Durbin (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| IN – Bayh (D) | Maybe | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| LA – Landrieu (D) | Maybe | No | No | No |
| MA – Kerry (D) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| MA – Kennedy (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| MD – Cardin (D) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| MD – Mikulski (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| ME – Collins (R) | No | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| ME – Snowe (R) | Maybe | |||
| MI – Levin (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| MI – Stabenow (D) | Yes | |||
| MN – Franken (D) | Yes (HCAN signer) | |||
| MN – Klobuchar (D) | Unknown | |||
| MO – McCaskill (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| MT – Baucus (D) | Maybe | |||
| MT – Tester (D) | Maybe | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| NC – Hagan (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| ND – Conrad (D) | Maybe | Yes | No | Yes |
| ND – Dorgan (D) | Yes | Maybe | Yes | Yes |
| NE – Ben Nelson (D) | Maybe | |||
| NH – Shaheen (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| NJ – Lautenberg (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| NJ – Menendez (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| NM – Bingaman (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| NM – Udall (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| NV – Reid (D) | Yes | |||
| NY – Gillibrand (D) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| NY – Schumer (D) | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| OH – Brown (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| OR – Merkley (D) | Yes | Yes (via email) | Yes (via email) | Yes (via email) |
| OR – Wyden (D) | Maybe | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| PA – Casey (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| PA – Specter (D) | Yes | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| RI – Reed (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| RI – Whitehouse (D) | Yes | |||
| SD – Johnson (D) | Unknown | |||
| VA – Warner (D) | Maybe | Dodges (via email) | No | Dodges (via email) |
| VA – Webb (D) | Yes | |||
| VT – Leahy (D) | Yes | |||
| VT – Sanders (I) | Yes | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) |
| WA – Cantwell (D) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| WA – Murray (D) | Yes | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill) | Yes (supporting HELP bill)) |
| WI – Feingold (D) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| WI – Kohl (D) | Maybe (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) | Dodges (via email) |
| WV – Byrd (D) | Unknown | |||
| WV – Rockefeller (D) | Yes | Yes |
Addendum: A health care reform supporter came to a protest with a gun.
Second addendum: A diligent emailing reader reminds me that we don’t need 51 senators, but rather 50 senators and the vice president. The reader also tells me that there are now 45 confirmed senators on the record ready to vote for the public option (not including Baucus) and only one Democrat and one independent who absolutely will not vote for a public option. Excluding the Republicans’ three remaining moderates, that leaves quite a few people who are undecided (even if they won’t officially describe themselves as undecided). The leadership does seem ready to use reconciliation, however, that won’t be necessary if they can get Lieberman to agree to allow the vote on the floor. So I guess the big question is how long the Democrats let the Senate Finance Committee hold the bill hostage.
So here are the “maybe” senators. We need five of them. My bet’s on Bayh, Tester, Warner, Pryor, and, kicking and screaming, Baucus. It’s doable.
Mark Begich (D-AK)
Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)
Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Tom Carper (D-DE)
Bill Nelson (D-FL)
Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Mary Landrieu (D-LA)
Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
Max Baucus (D-MT)
Jon Tester (D-MT)
Kent Conrad (D-ND)
Ben Nelson (D-NE)
Ron Wyden (D-OR)
Mark Warner (D-VA)
So reports the Washington Post.
It’s in the wake of the 2004 Inspector General report about to be released, and it’s pretty limited in scope right now. But these things have a way of snowballing.
Addendum: Case in point. Conyers, Nadler, Leahy, and Feingold want the probe expanded to investigate higher officials.
Just a few items to catch up with.
Pat Wiggins will not be seeking re-election. That opens up a slew of possibilities for her replacement. Patty Berg? Bonnie Neeley? David Colfax?
As you may have heard or read, Richard Marks is running for the 4th District Harbor Commission position as the incumbent is not running for re-election. I’ve heard that he has an opponent, but I haven’t seen any media or blog posts on it.
The big contest is going to be in the third district where Dan Hauser is running against Mike Wilson. When Bruce Anderson catches wind that Hauser is back in politics, I expect he’ll blow a fuse! I’ve received an email from a Wilson supporter saying that Hauser has already raised $8000 for his campaign. It’s all about the trail proposal.
No word so far on any challenge to Paul Gallegos for D.A.
Addendum: Turns out that Richard has two opponents as reported by Heraldo in the thread. I just haven’t been paying attention. I’m usually a geek about these things. I guess I’m slipping.
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