The study purports to debunk a number of assumptions about last fall’s election, the most significant of which are based upon exit polls. Specifically the study disputes the numbers regarding African American votes. I haven’t read the report itself yet, but the intro says that the 70 percent support figure is discussed extensively. I’m not quite clear as to why this data should be considered more reliable than the exit polls, but I’ll read the report and comment later. The following comes from this site.
A new study of the California Proposition 8 results debunks many of the myths surrounding Prop 8.
Below are our conclusions after reading the study by Professors Patrick Egan and Kenneth Sherrill about Proposition 8, which revoked same sex couples right to marry in California (download the whole study in pdf released on January 6, 2008. Also you can download the press release):
- The two most important characteristics determining the vote were party identification and ideology.
Those self describing as Democrats or Liberals, overwhelmingly opposed Prop 8. Those self describing as Republicans or Conservatives, overwhelmingly supported California Proposition 8.
- The third most important characteristic determining the vote was religiosity.
Those attending religious services every week, supported Prop 8 by 70% while those attending once a month opposed it by 52% and those hardly ever attending opposed it by 70%.
- The fourth most important characteristic determining the vote was age.
All the ages groups opposed Prop 8, except for those 65+ who supported it by 67%.
As importantly, when compared to another marriage initiative in California in 2000 (the Knight initiative), all age groups increased their support of same sex marriage equality in 2008—except for those 65 years of age or older.
- African Americans and Latinos supported Prop 8 by 58 and 59% respectively—not 70% plus as reported in an exit poll on November 4, 2008.
Furthermore, their vote correlates more with religiosity than race.
- Contrary to popular belief, knowing an LGBT person was not a significant factor in opposing California Proposition 8.
4 comments
Comments feed for this article
January 8, 2009 at 10:57 am
whyisthisnews?
So it was 59% of blacks instead of 70%. Big whoop. 11% difference, we care – why? What a lot of noise and fuss over nothing.
January 8, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Jim
As a masters student in public policy at UCLA I think I can help explain the difference.
The exit poll was from six randomly selected counties in the state (which were not the ones blacks are concentrated in).
Of the 1500 sampled, they only found 50 black men, and 200 black women.
While the exit poll as a whole has enough people to be statistically significant, the african american results, which only included black women, were not in any way significant or useable.
This study on the other hand did extensive data collection to get a significant and accurate picture of voters in the election.
11% in statistics is a huge difference whyisthisnews.
It also impacts the communities we need to focus on in the future advocacy.
One thing to realize is that gay culture is whitewashed to the extreme, so there is real work to do to include communities of color in our rainbow.
Race was not so much of an issue in this election issue, as shown by this study.
Blacks are much more likely to be religious and go to church weekly, which was one of the main predictors of a yes vote on prop 8. Controlling for religion, blacks voted about even with other races, about 48-52% voted yes, religion bumped that up to the 59%.
I think the bigger picture from this study is that conservatives and religious people are very hard to move (state legislature anyone?). Those voters have never been on our side and seem like they never will be, since they maintain thier opposition even after becoming friends with gays and haveing gay relatives come out to them. So it is more fundamental than just getting to know us.
In the future we need to go into our churches and use thier bible doctrines to counter thier views on gays in general and marriage in particular.
January 8, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Eric Kirk
Thank you. That’s an excellent explanation.
January 10, 2009 at 12:13 pm
Eric Kirk
I think the bigger picture from this study is that conservatives and religious people are very hard to move (state legislature anyone?). Those voters have never been on our side and seem like they never will be, since they maintain thier opposition even after becoming friends with gays and haveing gay relatives come out to them. So it is more fundamental than just getting to know us.
In the future we need to go into our churches and use thier bible doctrines to counter thier views on gays in general and marriage in .
I think they could have been moved by libertarian arguments framed in their self-interest and clearing up some lies about the law. They should have taken a page from Harvey Milk in that regard.