You can see my map here, then you can create your own.
I’m going to be optimistic and predict a North Carolina and Missouri win. I may change my mind by Sunday. I just can’t believe Obama will take Indiana, Georgia, or any of the plains states.
Addendum: Obama is indeed making a play for Arizona. How serious of a play remains to be seen.
And reader Matt Owen emailed the following thoughts about the electoral college for your consideration.
Eric – If my math is correct, under our present electoral college system a presidential candidate would only have to barely win 11 states to become president.That candidate could actually lose 39 states badly and lose the majority vote of the nation and yet still be president as long as they concentrated all their efforts on the following states:California – 55Texas – 34New York – 31Florida – 27Pennsylvania – 21Illinois – 21
Ohio – 20Michigan – 17New Jersey – 15North Carolina – 15New Jersey – 15TOTAL: 271 Electoral College VotesThis is probably the main reason the Democrats lost the 2000 and 2004 election. Well that and Ralph Nader.The Dems get the coasts. The Repubs get the heartland. Gotta win those key swing states.
Definitely the Republicans have held an edge under the system in other elections. The question is whether this election marks a realignment.
Second addendum: Pew four years ago, and Pew today.
Third addendum: For those worried about rumors of Obama leads dwindling, you need to read this and chill out.
And if you’re interested in the history of electoral college results, this site has the maps dating back to the first election in 1789. Quiz – how many presidential elections have gone to someone with fewer votes than his opponent?
Fourth addendum: Some early voting data.
The latest Field Poll has Prop 8 down to 44 percent yes, with 49 percent no, according to a commenter on fivethirtyeight. The poll hasn’t been released yet, but the “No” campaign hints that it’s good news for them, perhaps confirming the fivethirtyeight post.
And Samuel Jackson joins the opposition to Proposition 8.
If Prop 8 goes down, you may thank/blame Jerry Brown.