You are currently browsing the daily archive for October 30, 2008.
Sunday, Nov 2
2 to 6
Fortuna Veterans Hall
1426 Main Street
Musicians: Sue Moon, Susan Anderson and Friends; Mary Jo Casasanta; and the ClifTones will play from 2-5
Food: BBQ’d Local Organic Burgers, Polish Dogs & Chicken filets plus Chili, Beer, Wine, Soft drinks & Cider
All food and art proceeds benefit Clendenen For Supervisor
FPPC # 1302031
You can see my map here, then you can create your own.
I’m going to be optimistic and predict a North Carolina and Missouri win. I may change my mind by Sunday. I just can’t believe Obama will take Indiana, Georgia, or any of the plains states.
Addendum: Obama is indeed making a play for Arizona. How serious of a play remains to be seen.
And reader Matt Owen emailed the following thoughts about the electoral college for your consideration.
Eric – If my math is correct, under our present electoral college system a presidential candidate would only have to barely win 11 states to become president.That candidate could actually lose 39 states badly and lose the majority vote of the nation and yet still be president as long as they concentrated all their efforts on the following states:California – 55Texas – 34New York – 31Florida – 27Pennsylvania – 21Illinois – 21
Ohio – 20Michigan – 17New Jersey – 15North Carolina – 15New Jersey – 15TOTAL: 271 Electoral College VotesThis is probably the main reason the Democrats lost the 2000 and 2004 election. Well that and Ralph Nader.The Dems get the coasts. The Repubs get the heartland. Gotta win those key swing states.
Definitely the Republicans have held an edge under the system in other elections. The question is whether this election marks a realignment.
Second addendum: Pew four years ago, and Pew today.
Third addendum: For those worried about rumors of Obama leads dwindling, you need to read this and chill out.
And if you’re interested in the history of electoral college results, this site has the maps dating back to the first election in 1789. Quiz – how many presidential elections have gone to someone with fewer votes than his opponent?
Fourth addendum: Some early voting data.
The latest Field Poll has Prop 8 down to 44 percent yes, with 49 percent no, according to a commenter on fivethirtyeight. The poll hasn’t been released yet, but the “No” campaign hints that it’s good news for them, perhaps confirming the fivethirtyeight post.
And Samuel Jackson joins the opposition to Proposition 8.
If Prop 8 goes down, you may thank/blame Jerry Brown.
It’s spilling out of virtual territory and into the campaign. Brad Dacus of the Pacific Justice Institute (no relationship to the Pacific Legal Foundation which backed the lawsuit against Measure T) is basically comparing homosexuals to Hitler.
“There was another time in history when people, when the bell tolled. And the question was whether or not they were going to hear it. The time was during Nazi Germany with Adolf Hitler. You see he brought crowds of clergy together to assure them that he was going to look after the church.
And one of the members, bold and courageous, Reverend Niemand (sp?) made his way to the front and (inaudible) said “Hitler, we are not concerned about the church. Jesus Christ will take care of the church.
We are concerned about the soul of Germany.” Embarrassed and chagrined, his peers quickly shuffled him to the back.
And as they did Adolf Hitler said, “The soul of Germany, you can leave that to me.” And they did, and because they did bombs did not only fall upon the nation of Germany, but also upon the church and their testimony to this very day.
Let us not make that mistake folks. Let us hear the bell! Vote on Proposition 8!”
It’s catchy. The Republicans of Monterey County sent out an email comparing Obama to Hitler. I wonder if they’ve been consulting with the Republican Party of Pennsylvania who compared a vote for Obama to the Holocaust.