The campaign goes south

This photoshopping is being tossed around (here’s the “apology“) conservative blogs. Is this seriously not funny, or am I just being “politically correct?”

Granted, this guy is taking it a bit too seriously. But I and others have said that if Obama pulled ahead at any point, the Republicans would do whatever they can to remind white voters that Obama is black, especially in the wake of yet another poll which has Obama ahead in North Carolina (I’ll believe it when I see it on election day). Remember Lakoff – “don’t think of an elephant.”

The danger is that it can backfire, but McCain and company will simply repudiate it while suggesting that Obama supporters are too sensitive.

So tell me. Is the picture funny? Inquiring minds want to know.

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Meanwhile, McCain’s demeanor (as noted in a thread below) is not going unnoticed.

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Palin will “win” tonight’s debate, according to some. Here’s why:

• Incredibly low expectations
• Short answers on broad predictable topics (frantically negotiated by McCain)
• Lots of prep time with smart GOP operatives giving her zingy one-liners that will play well on news clips in the days following the debates
• Biden feeling a need to walk on tiptoes because he doesn’t want to seem condescending
• Pre-written Republican talking points attacking Biden’s condescension and Palin’s strong, expectation-beating performance

Oh yeah, and through the link you can read Palin’s comment on Hannity yesterday that the media is trying to “censor” her.

Addendum: Really, really bad news for McCain. He’s pulling out of Michigan. His campaign office, ads, and an event next week – all shut down. He’s sending his people to Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida, where he has been losing ground. Michigan is locked up for Obama. In theory anyway.

Meanwhile, word has it that Palin intends to go negative on Biden tonight. According to some blog entries I read this morning, Biden intends to focus his heat on McCain.

Second addendum: A cynical view of McCain’s pullout from Michigan – he thinks he has it in the bag. McCain is already obtaining and sending lists of foreclosure victims to election departments to disqualify them from voting. According to this post, foreclosures are coming down in Michigan at 10 thousand a week, though that seems pretty high.

Third addendum: Now this one is funny!

Ha ha ha! No really!

Also, Ralph Stanley has endorsed Obama and will be in an ad to be released in Virginia. Obama should seal the deal and appear with him on stage. Whether you know Stanley or not, this could be a big deal in Southwest Virginia.

McCain is opening 12 more offices in the state bringing his number to 20. Obama has 45 offices across the state.

Second District debate thread

I was helping Asher with his homework, but I heard most of the debate.

No real surprises that I heard, except for Johanna’s refusal to comment on what the county can do for Hispanics, who of all the districts number the highest in the Second District. I don’t think she has anything against Hispanics. Probably it just doesn’t register to her as an issue of importance requiring government attention. But then, why didn’t she say that? She made it look like she doesn’t care about Hispanics. A simple, “I respect the diversity of my district, but I just don’t believe it’s the responsibility of government to outreach to a particular racial group.” Something like that.

The general plan came up again. Once again Estelle wouldn’t cite a preference among the existing plans, saying that they are “oversimplified.” It’s the first time she’s given that response, and I’m not sure what it means. Johanna supports plan D, which is pretty much in tow with the status quo, “don’t worry, be happy” development without reasonable restrictions crowd. Clif gave his patented A-/B+ response. A and B both, to varying degrees, regulate rural development pretty much restricting development to existing areas of density. C and D both call for wider development based on projections of population growth much larger than state estimates. The North Coast Journal provided a rough sketch a few years ago.

But when density issues specifically were raised again, Clif made clear that he would emphasize development in the cluster areas (Hydesville, Fortuna, Rio Dell, Garberville, Redway). Estelle didn’t respond directly, but distinguished herself by responding that we need to recognize the homestead way of life as legitimate, consistent with the “rural values” theme she has played in the past and which has been a sore point within the separate divisions of the local environmental movement – confirming a theme which I wrote about some time back and took some flack for.

When asked whether he would support inclusionary zoning within the Second District, Clif did not exclude the possibility but said he preferred incentive measures and would only use the zoning tool as a last resort. Johanna answered a definitive “no” as did Estelle. Personally, I’d like to use it straight up, but then I’m a bleeding heart liberal who hates freedom, so take it where you will.

Somebody asked whether the candidates supported a merger of the Sheriff’s Department and the Coroner’s office. Clif and Johanna said they would consult with the agencies for their preferences, and Clif said he would consider models set by other counties. Estelle stated her preference that they remain mutually independent as certain investigations might involve a conflict of interest (think the Cheri Moore killing). To be honest, I’m with Estelle.

Clif closed out by reaffirming his opposition to big box development in the Second District, or rather his preference for other development. Estelle and Johanna thanked everybody.

I was happy to see the journalists questioning the candidates for the second half, but slightly dismayed to see that none of them was from the Second District. We have three capable newspapers here, with very capable journalists. That’s not to slight the three excellent journalists on the panel. But couldn’t we have at least one home field rep?

Measure T didn’t come up. Both Clif and Estelle have pledged to honor the provisions of Measure T despite the injunction. It’d be nice if somebody questioned Johanna about it.

Meanwhile, let’s take a poll.

Who won tonight’s debate?
	Clif Clendenen
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Addendum: Heraldo has a summary of the debate, which includes some points I missed.

Second addendum: Richard Marks had his own impressions.

I can’t find any Times Standard coverage, but here is the Eureka Reporter coverage of the debate, with a couple of great photos.

Obama breaking out some big leads in key states

Some very encouraging numbers. Ordinarily I’d say he’s got it in the bag, but this race has turned several times on a dime. Still, I’d rather have Obama’s numbers than McCain’s. Those Quinnipiac numbers are too good to believe, but it’s uplifting to see even one poll giving him a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania. He’s also ahead in Florida polls recently, and McCain can’t win without Florida. Even more ominous for McCain are the Rasmussen numbers for Texas and Mississippi, both within single digits.

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Matthew Dowd’s four rules of losing campaign spin:

Rule One: When a campaign starts attacking the media, things aren’t going well.

Rule Two: When a campaign says the polls are wrong, things aren’t very good.

Rule Three: When a campaign says “the only poll that counts is the one on election day” usually means a campaign is about to lose.

Now we could probably add a new one: when partisans start saying let the candidate be the candidate, it means things are off course.

I don’t agree with Rule Three really. Even the winning campaign says the same thing. First they don’t want to seem cocky. Secondly, especially with a grass-roots oriented campaign like Obama’s, you want your volunteers to work like you’re ten points down. But certainly, when you watch the McCain campaign calling up pollsters in pointless efforts to get them to admit that their own polls are flawed, you’re seeing some desperation. This is a volatile election, but it’s looking very good for Obama at the moment.

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Check out the slide show of clips from Biden’s training debates.

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Split? Fox News wanders into a restaurant in Easter Pennsylvania and asks for a hands vote as to support for Obama or McCain. The reporter calls it “split?” Maybe there’s a McCain section of the restaurant not on the film, but the hands didn’t look “split” to me.

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Yes emailers, I’ve seen those Palin videos. They’re all over the Internets. They’re being aired all over the networks. I don’t need to post them here.

Look, Palin will do fine tomorrow night. I think at this point they’re deliberately sinking expectations so far she can’t lose. She’ll rattle off some cute one-liner and smile at her opponent, who will be the complete gentleman. Sexual stereotypes will be maintained, and even those voting for Obama will say, “you know, I kind of like her.” Biden will take shots at McCain, not her, and maybe he can introduce some policy discussion, which will probably bore half the viewers who will be tuning in just to see if she’ll say something stupid. If she does, she’ll probably make a joke of it.

It won’t make much of a difference at this point. If Palin really is as bad as the Couric and Gibson interviews would indicate, she could conceivably sink McCain, but I wouldn’t count on it. She’s going to memorize lines, and she’ll deliver them regardless of the nuances of the question. Most viewers don’t pay that close attention anyway, and it’ll only hurt on the replays during which she’ll have her surrogates explaining what “she really meant,” and decrying the “gotcha questions.”

And ultimately, it won’t make any more difference than the Bentson drubbing of Quayle (mostly due to the one line) in 1988.

Addendum: Okay, somebody not supporting Obama thinks this is a brilliant video. I guess if displaying Obama’s mug next to photos of dictators, Islamic flags, and pretty young white women is commentary, well, then this is commentary.

Meanwhile, another dingbat moment from Michelle Malkin already making excuses in case tomorrow’s debate doesn’t go well. See, the moderator, Gwen Ifill, is writing a book about young black political leaders. There will be a chapter on Obama. It’s a conflict of interest because – no kidding – if Obama wins the presidency then she will sell more books. So she has incentive to somehow rig tomorrow’s debate by throwing her lots of “gotcha questions.”

Second addendum: Several polls put Obama slightly ahead in North Carolina. I suspect McCain will ultimately take the state, however, the fact that McCain has to even fight there is bad news for him.

Look for the right wing 527s to trot out Rev. Wright again soon.

Third addendum: Sometimes it’s the small things. From The Caucus:

It was Senator Barack Obama who crossed the aisle. As the senators gathered to vote on the $700 billion financial rescue package on Wednesday evening, Mr. Obama walked over to the Republican side of the chamber to extend a greeting to Senator John McCain.

He got a chilly response. While it took Mr. Obama several seconds to make his way over to see his rival, Mr. McCain barely pivoted his body as he took Mr. Obama’s hand for a handshake that lasted just a moment. The eye contact was just as brief.

Kind of eliminates the “strategy theory” of McCain’s demeanor in last Friday’s debate.