Here they are. It looks like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Rhode Island are certain Democratic pick-ups. I would add Montana to the list even though some of the recent polls have Tester’s lead shrinking. The polls have Menendez making a break for it in New Jersey, and the Steele surge in Maryland hasn’t panned out.

So the question is whether the Democrats can pull two wins out of the Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri (and it’s not inconceivable that they could pull a surprise in Arizona). Missouri has been a see-saw for weeks, and I’m not even going to touch that one. Ford has actually been ahead in a couple of polls recently, hopefully the product of a backlash against the racism from the Corker camp.

But the real surprise is that after months of inching up Webb has moved ahead of Allen in recent Virginia polls. I like to think this is also the result of a backlash for the stunt Allen/Drudge pulled with out-of-context passages from Webb’s novels. Probably a mistake also to emphasize that Webb is a candidate who can read and write.

Lastly, I had all but given up on Lamont, but he’s finally made a move in the polls. Too little too late probably, but as Kos notes the loss of Democratic support probably accounts for Lieberman’s tirade against the NY Times for endorsing Lamont.

Still a whole week for “suprises,” the magic ambush day often being Thursday on the theory that it allows for a few days to sink in without giving the the opponent an adequate chance to respond.

Photo taken from Kos.

Update: Lesson for kids – treat your little siblings well or they will get even when they grow up!

Meanwhile, Lincoln Chafee’s last ditch ad is probably more of a lamentation. He should have switched parties a couple of years ago. Now he’s toast.

Second update: Everybody’s talking about Congress, but it’s possible that Democrats could pick up 9 governorships as well. In California, if only…

Third update: Chris Bowers thinks it will all come down to Missouri.

Watch Missouri, and watch it closely. For a campaign this important, it is stunning how little press coverage it has received outside of Michael J. Fox. I’m not saying that there couldn’t be some surprises on Election Day that would shift Missouri’s position as the deciding factor, but I am saying that it currently strikes me as impossible for Democrats to win the Senate if we don’t win Missouri. I am also not saying that we have a good chance to retake the Senate–I still think the odds are against us. However, with surges by Webb and Menendez, the brass ring is within our grasp once again. Right now, I’d peg our odds for Senate control at around 10-20%, because we do have to sweep all of the close races in New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland and Montana for Missouri to be the deciding factor.

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