Well, I saw An Inconvenient Truth tonight. The Garberville Theater was filled with many of the usual suspects, and a surprising number of younger people which is encouraging simply for the interest. The film consisted of a Powerpoint slide presentation conducted by the former VP and arguably president elect 2000, laced with frightening footage of disappearing glaciers and convincing graphics of everything from the correlation between warming and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to a convincing argument that the Republicans’ sheltering of the American auto industry from strict emission standards isn’t doing the car makers any favors in a global market. We were also treated with a touching family history, and I mean that without sarcasm – particularly at Gore, Sr.’s decision to stop growing tobacco after his daughter’s death at the hands of the poison the family had been selling.
Most shocking is that Gore is, for the first time in his life, is charismatic (a friend of mine remarked during the 2000 election that you knew it was a boring campaign when among the four candidates for President and VP, Gore was the most flamboyant). The Republicans have harped over the years that he continually “reinvents himself.” Well, he may have settled upon an effective invention this time. It wasn’t staged – he was in front of an audience, and he was engaging, humorous, and persuasive. And it looked natural. Arguably “presidential.”
Afterwards I met my good friend Fred Baron who shared my thought, and the thought of any political geek watching the film – the film marks the beginning of Gore for President, 2008. Certainly, the release was timed for the 2006 elections as well. And as reported earlier on this blog, it’s doing quite well.
The film wasn’t detailed on the science, though I’m told that the book addresses the science with considerably more depth. Other than the striking footage, the film presented nothing new to me in terms of substance. I would be more impressed if the film attempted to address the skeptics’ quite reasonable question as to whether the increased CO2 levels are causing the warming or simply an indicator of it. The arguments for causation rather than mere correlation are compelling, and Gore ought to have shared some of them. Perhaps he does in his book, but it’s central to the debate, and the film will reach many more people.
Which brings me to my problem with the film. Yes, it affected me. It’s impossible to sit through a two hour film with that kind of power without being affected, and I pride myself on my skepticism. But actually, it’s the power the film had over me that disturbs me about it, precisely when I am cognitively aware of its deficiencies. As George Orwell once remarked, “All propaganda is lies, even when you are telling the truth.” I agreed with Gore, for the most part, before I saw the film. The film inspires a sense of urgency, and I definitely share it.
I can understand Gore’s point about skepticism, but I’m uncomfortable with his attempt to discourage it. Truth, especially truth so important, should be able to withstand scrutiny, and even becomes more compelling when it does. The film should have incorporated a few of the intelligent criticisms, and dealt with them. Gore decried the reference to global warming as a “theory.” But evolution is a theory. Relativity as well. Other theories are treated as fact and applied that way, but remain theories because they can’t yet be proven in the sense that all variables have been eliminated. That’s the nature of science. Bush’s whining and use of tax money to dispute the relative consensus in the scientific community is actually beside the point. It doesn’t matter if there’s consensus. A theory doesn’t become a law until all variables are excluded.
A critic of Moore’s films once remarked that if he was a filmmaker he’d feel much more successful if the viewers were arguing in the aisles afterward, rather than applauding in unison. Personally, I believe that the cause against global warming would actually benefit from a film of that nature, precisely because I believe Gore’s premise is compelling. But unfortunately, propaganda, even for a good cause, doesn’t allow for much nuance. After the 2004 election, nuance is a bad word. Gore can’t afford to come across as reflective. He has to preach the word.
Which brings me to the fact that I saw Elmer Gantry last night for the first time. The experience may be coloring my response to tonight’s film.
All but one of the Rotten Tomatoes reviews are positive. And the one starts off by comparing Gore to Moore, revealing a political agenda of his own. Still, I appreciated the following passage:
Look, if you think Al Gore is a lunk head, and what he has to say about global warming is utter hogwash, then you’re gonna hate this movie. But if you like the man and agree with him politically, then you’ll love it. The film makes him out to be a bigger martyr and a better savior than Jesus Christ, himself.
On the other hand, all criticisms of the film and speculations abouulterioror motives aside, Gore is most likely right. And the warming trend is now indisputable, the only question being whether humanity is responsible for it. And even that isn’t the core issue. The core issue is simply whether reducing CO2 emissions will mitigate the warming. The scale of the problem alone requires considerably more thought than the vast majority of pols are currently willing to commit to it.
Recently, Bush was asked whether he would be seeing the film. He responded with his characteristic smirk and said “Doubt it.” That clip, if available, should be added to the film as it plays right into its theme of mass denial.
For what it’s worth, Gore’s presentation has converted a former global warming skeptic. Well, that and four other books.
I’ll be updating this post with more links on topic over the next few days as I come across interesting comments on the film.
Update: Although he hasn’t seen the film, and has no intention of seeing it, Republican Senator James Inhofe feels quite qualified to compare the movie to Hitler’s Mein Kampf. How much do you want to bet that he’s never read that one either?

20 comments
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July 30, 2006 at 4:48 pm
Anonymous
Al Gore is not arguably the President elect 2000.
Gore’s father did react strongly to his daughter’s death, but not to the earlier deaths of thousands of customers.
I believed in UFO’s and Bigfoot when I saw movies in the 1970′s supporting their existence. I also believed in Global Cooling back then.
Bush whines, but Gore preaches. Hmmm,,,
Bush has a characteristic smirk? Does Clinto have a characteristic leer?
Al Gore is not most likely right. He is, in fact, most likely wrong and the so-called are entirely disputable.
Please keep it up Eric, you are the most entertaining blogger I know of.
July 30, 2006 at 5:50 pm
Carson Park Ranger
It appears that, by his/her own admission, “anonymous” believes much too much in just about anything. Those of us who “believe” in global warming are informed by the data.
July 30, 2006 at 7:03 pm
Fred
I haven’t seen the movie, but I’m sure he never showed any of NASA’s stuff showing the polar caps of Mars receding, at least I’ve been told NASA is saying that.
Not only are we screwing up the Earth, I guess the effects of our pollution are so wide ranging Mars is being affected.
July 30, 2006 at 7:20 pm
Anonymous
Global warming is so severe that Arkley is speculating on Martian real estate.
July 30, 2006 at 7:58 pm
Eric V. Kirk
We, we don’t live on Mars Fred. I’m a little less concerned about what’s happening over there.
For the record, Gore did not believe in global cooling in the 1970s. He first learned about the warming trend in the 1960s. The ice age theorists were not the same group of people, notwithstanding popular legend.
Gore did win the election in 2000. If he had demanded a recount of the entire state of Florida instead of trying to play cute by cherry picking recounts in a few counties, even the Supreme Court wouldn’t have been able to save Bush’s ass. As for the SC decisions themselves in 00, well, that’s a more complicated discussion. But assuming you, anon 9:48 are familiar with the cases, perhaps you can tell me where the federal jurisdiction is in terms of interpreting Florida law to “imply” a “safe harbor provision.”
Lastly, have you actually seen the film, or are you pulling an Inhofe?
July 30, 2006 at 10:09 pm
Fred
You wrote: “Gore did win the election in 2000. If he had demanded a recount of the entire state of Florida instead of trying to play cute by cherry picking recounts in a few counties,…”.
But the Gore crowd were the ones that wanted just those counties recounted. Probably because they feared- Florida being a relatively conservative state- a full state recount might go against him.
If we would have recounted every state, who knows what the outcome would have been? Ever notice how the count changes every time a recount is done? The numbers could have changed quite a bit, either way, if they’d done a nationwide recount.
The results might have different if the election was held a day earlier or later, as well. So what?
July 30, 2006 at 10:26 pm
Eric V. Kirk
I agree with you re the Gore crowd. They misplayed the game, although again, that’s Monday morning quarterbacking. The cherry-picking strategy might have been sound based on the information they had at the time.
However, Gore did have more votes in Florida. The various media organizations who obtained all of the ballots by the FOIA and conducted their own counts established that pretty conclusively. Whether it was partly or wholely Gore’s fault is pretty much beside the point. The fact is that the Florida voters were disinfranchised by the process. Their decision was not honored.
July 30, 2006 at 11:27 pm
Heraldo
Yes, and it wasn’t Republican voters who were disinfranchised.
July 31, 2006 at 12:38 am
Anonymous
i think freds point is there are solar cycles which in turn warm things up on earth and mars.
July 31, 2006 at 1:10 am
Anonymous
Yeah, the sun rises in the east and sets in the west causing an effect known as day/night. Nasa has just discovered that this occurs on mars as well.
It’s not yet know if the martians will agree to sign the Kyoto treaty but Bush has promised us that the military will take necessary steps to that we end this day/night thing once and for all.
July 31, 2006 at 6:15 am
Eric V. Kirk
anon 5:38 – there are indeed cycles. And if the film last night and various climatologists are telling us accurately, he current pattern exceeds the scale of anything within thousands of years in terms of the steep increase in such a short period of time, and is already far in excess of the scale of the spike during the middle ages the skeptics often bring up. Unfortunately, nobody had the equipment to measure the CO2 back then. But the correllation is pretty tight with this “cycle.”
Can we say for absolutely certain that the CO2 is the cause rather than merely an indicator? Obviously not. But an Occam’s Razor approach suggests it’s the cause especially since we have a pretty good idea of the mechanism, and more to the point I think the scale of potential consequences and the precautionary principle warrant the assumption of causation. If disaster is inevitable as a matter of nature, then it isn’t really going to matter much whether GM goes bankrupt because it can’t compete with extranational companies in CO2 reduction technology.
July 31, 2006 at 8:22 pm
Anonymous
Bush won twice, so I’ll use the logic you have previously used on this blog with respect to other candidates–he won, so quit whining!
July 31, 2006 at 8:28 pm
Anonymous
Unlike Bush, Gallegos didn’t purge voter lists so that he could win.
July 31, 2006 at 8:55 pm
Anonymous
The link to Michael Schermer is valuable – thank you. But the rallying cry to become “activists” is problematic. Kyoto will do very little to address the problem, and the notion that a 70% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 will not be enough to avert catastrophe is alarming. What are we to do – and let’s be realistic!
July 31, 2006 at 10:49 pm
Eric V. Kirk
anon 1:55 – I agree. The advice in the credits at the end of the film is pretty much canned. Vote for liberals. Recycle. Tell your friends.
70 percent does seem unrealistic with China now opening a new coal burning plant every week.
Maybe we can’t prevent the warming. Maybe we can only mitigate it and hope we can ride the storm until there’s a major tech shift.
August 1, 2006 at 5:25 am
Anonymous
anonymous 1:28 pm …. tell us what Gallegos did do to win, since you know everything !!
August 1, 2006 at 6:15 am
Eric V. Kirk
Well, it’s probably more of a question of what Dikeman did to lose. But Gallegos did run a great campaign. I don’t think anybody’s disputed that really.
August 1, 2006 at 7:10 am
Anonymous
Gallegos didn’t have Rose Welsh supporting him.
August 1, 2006 at 3:14 pm
Duffy
Eric,
Gore did not win the 2000 election by any count. The first google link is this:
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/florida.ballots/stories/main.html
August 1, 2006 at 4:20 pm
Eric V. Kirk
Hey Duffy! The article you linked left out the statewide study, which you can find at wikipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_2000
Specifically:
Candidate Outcomes Based on Potential Recounts in Florida Presidential Election 2000
(outcome of one particular study; not representative of all studies)
Review Method Winner
Review of All Ballots Statewide (never undertaken)
• Standard as set by each county Canvassing Board during their survey Gore by 171
• Fully punched chads and limited marks on optical ballots Gore by 115
• Any dimples or optical mark Gore by 107
• One corner of chad detached or optical mark Gore by 60
Review of Limited Sets of Ballots (initiated but not completed)
• Gore request for recounts of all ballots in Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Volusia counties Bush by 225
• Florida Supreme Court of all undervotes statewide Bush by 430
• Florida Supreme Court as being implemented by the counties, some of whom refused and some counted overvotes as well as undervotes Bush by 493
Certified Result (official final count)
• Recounts included from Volusia and Broward only Bush by 537